Bills vs Seahawks - AI Player Props

Learn about Rithmm that will improve your sports betting strategy for the 2024 NFL season by focusing on AI player props for the Bills vs Seahawks matchup. 

In this post, I'll show how user-friendly and effective Rithmm is for deciding on Player Props. 

Bills vs Seahawks - AI Player Props and Best Bets Today

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Top Player Prop Selection

Khalil Shakir is well-positioned to surpass 40.5 receiving yards this Sunday, as he’s stepping into an increasingly prominent role within the Buffalo Bills’ offense. With recent injuries impacting the Bills’ wide receiver depth—particularly to players like Dawson Knox and at times Gabriel Davis—Shakir’s involvement has naturally increased. He’s coming off  a game where he saw a notable uptick in targets and production, finishing with a season-high in receiving yards and demonstrating reliable hands and strong route-running, both key for Buffalo’s offensive schemes.

Shakir also benefits from Josh Allen’s preference for distributing the ball across multiple receivers, particularly when facing defenses that focus heavily on containing top options like Stefon Diggs. As Allen spreads the field, Shakir often finds space to exploit, and he's proven capable of creating separation in the slot, making him a trusted mid-yardage target. This is especially valuable against this week’s opponent, whose secondary has shown vulnerability to slot receivers and underneath routes, allowing for chunk yardage plays in the middle of the field.

Buffalo’s offense, ranked among the top in the league, emphasizes a high-volume passing game, which should give Shakir ample opportunities to see consistent targets. Given the opponent’s focus on containing big plays from primary threats, Shakir is likely to see favorable matchups, making it realistic for him to hit or exceed 40.5 yards. If he maintains the momentum he’s been building, he’s more than capable of converting his targets into meaningful yardage this week.

How I Use Rithmm Models to find the best player prop in the Bills vs Seahawks game

Several trends support the likelihood of Khalil Shakir surpassing 40.5 receiving yards this Sunday. Here’s a look at the key trends:

1. Increased Targets and Role in Recent Games

• Recent Performance Uptick: Shakir’s recent game involvement suggests he’s earning trust within the Bills’ offense. Last week, he saw more targets and set a  season-high in receiving yards. With Buffalo’s offensive adjustments due to injuries and player rotation, Shakir’s role in the passing game is expanding, which bodes well for continued production.
• Bills’ Offensive Distribution: Buffalo’s offense, led by Josh Allen, often utilizes multiple receivers, especially when defenses focus on shutting down primary targets like Stefon Diggs. This trend of spreading the ball means Shakir is likely to see several targets, especially in situations where the defense is heavily focused on the perimeter.

2. Opponent’s Vulnerability to Slot Receivers

• Defensive Weaknesses: This week’s opposing defense has struggled to contain slot receivers, often allowing significant yards on underneath and mid-range routes. Shakir’s role as a slot receiver fits well into exploiting this weakness, as he runs a variety of routes designed to create space in the middle of the field.
• Higher YAC (Yards After Catch) Allowed: The opposing defense ranks lower in terms of yards after the catch allowed, meaning players like Shakir, who excel in generating YAC, can capitalize on missed tackles or soft zone coverage in the secondary.

3. Increased Passing Volume by Buffalo

• High Pass-Rate Offense: Buffalo is one of the top passing offenses in the NFL, both  in volume and effectiveness. Their commitment to the passing game, especially when the run game struggles or the opponent's defense stacks against the run, means there’s a high likelihood of Shakir seeing more opportunities.
• Quick Passing to Counter Defensive Pressure: Against defenses that apply heavy pressure, Buffalo has a tendency to use shorter, quick-release passing plays, increasing the involvement of slot receivers like Shakir. These plays are designed to gain yards efficiently, helping players like Shakir capitalize on quick passes in the middle of the field.

4. Positive Game Script and Target Share in Key Situations

• Red Zone and 3rd Down Reliability: Shakir has shown reliability on crucial downs, particularly third downs and red-zone targets. These situations often call for safe, short-to-intermediate throws to move the chains, which aligns with Shakir’s strengths.

• Play Design and Matchup-Based Offense: Buffalo’s offense is known to adapt its game plan based on matchups. With Shakir matched up against a secondary vulnerable in the slot, play-calling trends suggest an increased focus on short and mid-range throws, giving Shakir favorable conditions to rack up yards.

5. Historical Trends in Yards Per Reception and Role Utilization

• Yards Per Reception: Shakir’s yards per reception have been consistently high, meaning that even with a moderate target share, he can convert a few catches into significant yardage, which aligns well with a 40.5-yard benchmark.
• Development Trend: As a young receiver, Shakir is trending upward in his usage and performance, suggesting that the coaching staff is actively finding ways to integrate him into the game plan.

Summary

The combination of Shakir’s recent increased usage, the defensive vulnerabilities of the opposing team, Buffalo’s passing-focused offense, and Shakir’s role in key game situations all point toward a strong chance of him surpassing the 40.5 receiving yards line. These trends make a strong case for Shakir to continue building on his recent momentum.

Selection: Khalil Shakir Over 40.5 Rec Yards

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