Chargers vs Patriots - AI Player Props

In this post, I'll show how user-friendly and effective Rithmm is for deciding on Player Props. 

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Top Player Prop Selection for Chargers vs Patriots

Antonio Gibson’s projected workload for this weekend has become a topic of discussion, with many questioning whether he will surpass 8.5 carries. As a versatile back in a Patriots offense that frequently employs a committee approach, Gibson’s opportunities as a ball  carrier are often limited. Adding to the uncertainty, New England’s matchup against the Chargers may necessitate a game plan that minimizes his rushing attempts in favor of other options. His likelihood of having fewer than 8.5 carries this weekend can be attributed to several factors, including his recent usage, the Patriots' offensive tendencies, and the dynamics of the upcoming matchup against the Chargers.

Recent Workload Trends

In the Patriots' recent game against the Buffalo Bills, Gibson logged 10 carries but managed only 28 yards, averaging a modest 2.8 yards per carry. This lack of efficiency may prompt the Patriots to allocate more touches to other backs in their committee or emphasize their passing game.

Over the course of the season, Gibson’s role has fluctuated, often being used as a complementary back rather than a workhorse. This situational usage lowers the likelihood of him exceeding 8.5 carries, especially in a matchup that may not favor the ground game.

Chargers' Defensive Matchup

The Chargers have shown vulnerabilities against the run this season, but the Patriots may exploit this through a balanced attack rather than relying solely on Gibson. Other backs, such as Rhamondre Stevenson, could be favored in this matchup, especially given his higher volume and productivity throughout the season.

If the game script involves the Patriots playing from behind, as might be expected against the Chargers' potent offense, New England could lean heavily on their passing game, further limiting Gibson's opportunities on the ground.

Patriots' Offensive Philosophy

New England often employs a running back by committee approach, splitting carries among multiple players. This strategy inherently caps the carry ceiling for any one back, including Gibson. 

Gibson has also been utilized as a receiving option out of the backfield, which might result in more targets and fewer carries if the Patriots design their game plan around short passes and screens to counter the Chargers' defensive front.

Injury and Fatigue Concerns

Late in the season, teams often manage players' workloads carefully to prevent injuries. Gibson, who has had his share of health concerns in previous seasons, may see his carries limited as a precautionary measure.

Statistical Trends

The Patriots have averaged fewer than 25 rush attempts per game over their last three contests. With Stevenson and potentially other backs splitting the workload, it becomes less likely for Gibson to reach nine or more carries.

Given these considerations, Antonio Gibson is unlikely to see the volume required to exceed 8.5 carries this weekend, making the under a strong possibility.

Chargers vs Patriots AI Player Props

Antonio Gibson’s chances of surpassing 8.5 carries this weekend appear slim based on his recent workload trends, the Patriots’ offensive philosophy, and the matchup dynamics  against the Chargers. With New England’s tendency to distribute touches across a running back committee, Gibson’s role as a complementary back, and the likelihood of a pass-heavy game script, his opportunities on the ground could be limited. Additionally, the Patriots may prioritize other backs or incorporate Gibson more as a receiving option rather than a primary ball carrier. All these factors point to a strong case for the under on Gibson’s carry total this weekend.

Selection: Antonio Gibson Under 8.5 Carries

More AI NFL Player Prop Predictions

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