Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions - The Rithmm Roundup
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Welcome to the Rithmm Roundup for NFL Week 1 Player prop bets! It's finally time for the kickoff of the NFL season, and Rithmm has tons of tools for you to take advantage of in order to make betting on the NFL (and many other sports) just a little bit easier.
In this weekly column, I'll be taking a close look at our NFL Player Props tools, which you can find on the Rithmm app/website (make sure you sign up for your seven-day FREE trial at the bottom of the column) and picking some NFL Week 1 Player Props and game predictions to spotlight. This article will drop every Wednesday morning, and then in the following week's posts, we'll recap how things went!
Remember, our goal is to make betting a little bit easier for you all with the help of our AI Sports Betting predictive analytical models, so with that said let's dive right into the Week 1 Rithmm Roundup.
Understanding Player Props on Rithmm
First, let's get familiarized a little bit with Rithmm's interface, specifically for AI NFL player props and AI Sports Picks.
Starting with player props, to access the full comprehensive list, simply click on the props button in the bottom left of Rithmm while on the NFL tab. You'll then be presented with a list that looks exactly like this.
You'll see a couple interesting things here. First of all, Rithmm provides up-to-date odds on lines, which is extremely handy so you don't have to head to the sportsbook app to see if the line has changed since seeing it. Our player props tool also will show you what the Rithmm AI model's projection is for that player. Lastly, you'll see a percentage number on the right side, the word DTM, and either a little green star or a yellow caution sign.
DTM stands for Difference to Market, and it represents the difference between Rithmm's prediction and the line that your sportsbook has. Rithmm will compare the probability that the player prop has of winning based on Rithmm's line and the book's line, historical data, and the book's payout to determine the DTM. Once that happens, if the difference falls within a certain window, Rithmm will label it a recommended bet by putting a green star next to it.
Keep in mind that the model is not the end-all, be-all here! We want you to also use the Research tab as well to support your theories when taking NFL Week 1 player props.
Best Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions
Let's get into it! These are a few of the best player props for NFL Week 1 that the Rithmm AI Model spit out, along with updated odds and DTM. We'll look at the research behind each play and see why Rithmm recommended it.
Week 1 Adam Thielen (CAR) Prop Bet Predictions
Pick: Over 37.5 Rec Yards (-114)
Rithmm Predicts: 69.0 yards
DTM: 64.8%
Off the bat, we're jumping in with a player in Thielen who, last season, surprised a lot of people by going over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2018 despite the Panthers' offense not performing that well in the grand scheme of things. This year, Thielen is joined by new arrival Diontae Johnson, who should take some attention off of the veteran and become one of QB Bryce Young's favorite targets.
In Week 1, the Panthers face off against the New Orleans Saints, their divisional rival that they play twice a season. Last year, Thielen put up 54 and 74 yards in the two matchups between the two teams, putting him in good spot to hit this prop.
He'll likely matchup with Saints' slot cornerback Alontae Taylor, who had a down year last season. Taylor allowed 11 yards per reception in 2023, and when we take into account that Thielen's receptions prop sits at 3.5 currently, he could zoom over this number quickly.
Week 1 Lamar Jackson (BAL) Prop Bet Predictions
Pick: Over 48.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Rithmm Predicts: 68.6 yards
DTM: 48.9%
Death. Taxes. Lamar Jackson rushing prop overs.
Jackson is simply a guy you do not want to bet against when it comes to running, and the Rithmm AI model seems to know this well already. Despite the arrival of Derrick Henry this offseason, Jackson remains a massive rushing threat at all times.
In the 2023 AFC Championship game against the Chiefs, Jackson rushed for 54 yards, and recorded the only rush of 20+ yards that the Chiefs allowed to a quarterback all season. With the addition of Henry, this adds another factor that the Chiefs and DC Steve Spagnuolo will have to account for, potentially freeing up Jackson for chunk gains on the ground.
Teams will tend to want to run more on the Chiefs after seeing how their passing defense stifled offenses in 2023, and I don't see this being any different for the Ravens, who have always been a run-first team under Jackson. I think he goes over this line with ease.
Week 1 Jonathan Taylor (IND) Prop Bet Predictions
Pick: Under 74.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Rithmm Predicts: 51.8 Yards
DTM: 34%
Try to remember the Texans' rushing defense before Taylor carved it up in the Colts' final game of the 2023 regular season. It makes sense to want to take an over here, but the reason the Rithmm AI model is super sharp here is because prior to that game, the Texans were allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game at 94.4.
Taylor is absolutely a beast, yes. But the Texans were missing key defensive players in that game and added fierce run-stopper Danielle Hunter this offseason, shoring up the unit further.
In addition to this, we will see Anthony Richardson make his return to the lineup for the first time since Week 5 last season. Taylor and Richardson haven't gotten the chance to play together in a game yet, so it will be interesting to see the dynamic there.
Week 1 Geno Smith (SEA) Prop Bet Predictions
Pick: Over 9.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Rithmm Predicts: 12.2 Yards
DTM: 31.4%
The conversation this offseason when talking about the Seahawks has obviously been centered around how new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's offense will juice up the passing game. But what about Geno Smith's legs? The resurgent veteran QB took a bit of a step back running the ball in 2023, but in 2022 ranked eighth in the NFL with 366 rushing yards.
Grubb's offense is a type of spread offense, which is a good thing if you want Geno to be running this season, as it emphasizes the quarterback's mobility through RPO (run-pas option) usage. That brings us to Week 1 versus an opponent who we should see Geno be able to move the ball against.
In 2023, the Broncos allowed 12 quarterbacks to rush for at least 10 yards against them, and that list even included statues like Jimmy Garoppolo. I expect the Broncos' defense to once again struggle with defending the run here, as they gave up the ninth-most explosive rush rate in the league last season at 11.9%, per FTN.
Closing Remarks on the Rithmm Roundup on Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Make sure you continue to check out all of our AI NFL Predictions and AI Player Props all season long by using the Rithmm website and app to build fast and informative predictive analytics betting models!
