Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions - The Rithmm Roundup

Welcome to the Rithmm Roundup for NFL Week 4 player prop bets! Rithmm has tons of tools for you to take advantage of in order to make betting on the NFL (and many other sports) just a little bit easier.

In this weekly column, I'll be taking a close look at our NFL Player Props tools, which you can find on the Rithmm app/website (make sure you sign up for your seven-day FREE trial at the bottom of the column) and picking some NFL Week 4 Player Props and game predictions to spotlight. This article will drop every Friday afternoon, and then in the following week's posts, we'll recap how things went!

Remember, our goal is to make betting a little bit easier for you all with the help of our AI Sports Betting predictive analytical models, so with that said let's dive right into the Week 4 Rithmm Roundup.

Understanding Player Props on Rithmm

First, let's get familiarized a little bit with Rithmm's interface, specifically for AI NFL player props and AI Sports Picks.

Starting with player props, to access the full comprehensive list, simply click on the props button in the bottom left of Rithmm while on the NFL tab. You'll then be presented with a list that looks exactly like this.

You'll see a couple interesting things here. First of all, Rithmm provides up-to-date odds on lines, which is extremely handy so you don't have to head to the sportsbook app to see if the line has changed since seeing it. Our player props tool also will show you what the Rithmm AI model's projection is for that player. Lastly, you'll see a percentage number on the right side, the word DTM, and either a little green star or a yellow caution sign.

DTM stands for Difference to Market, and it represents the difference between Rithmm's prediction and the line that your sportsbook has. Rithmm will compare the probability that the player prop has of winning based on Rithmm's line and the book's line, historical data, and the book's payout to determine the DTM. Once that happens, if the difference falls within a certain window, Rithmm will label it a recommended bet by putting a green star next to it.

Keep in mind that the model is not the end-all, be-all here! We want you to also use the Research tab as well to support your theories when taking NFL Week 4 player props.

Best Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions

Week 3 Record: 3-1

Season Record: 7-4

Let's get into it! These are a few of the best player props for NFL Week 4 that the Rithmm AI Model spit out, along with updated odds and DTM. We'll look at the research behind each play and see why Rithmm recommended it.

Week 4 George Pickens (PIT) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Rithmm Predicts: 75.9 Yards

DTM: 31.6%

Pickens is the man you want this weekend! Going up against the Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers' top wide receiver should be used plenty. The Colts are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to outside WRs this season, and while Pickens has had a good-not-great start, there are several plays not on the scoresheet that would have painted a much rosier picture.

Pickens has hit the over here in two of three games so far, with his one miss up against the shadow coverage of one of the league's best corners in Pat Surtain, so it's excused.

Week 4 Bo Nix (DEN) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+128)

Rithmm Predicts: 0.35 touchdowns

DTM: 60.1%

This is definitely a weird spot for Nix. The rookie has had a mostly down start to his NFL career, with four interceptions and no passing touchdowns in three starts despite averaging almost 38 passing attempts per game.

Going up against the New York Jets at MetLife, with the Jets only having given up one passing touchdown this season (on a Will Levis prayer throw, no less), is a tall task for Nix to get his first.

Week 4 Josh Jacobs (GB) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Under 58.5 Rush Yards (-113)

Rithmm Predicts: 44.4 Yards

DTM: 26%

Is it me, or has Jos Jacobs just not looked great most of the time? Sure, he ran wild at Indianapolis in Week 2, but he looked bad for the majority of the game against the Eagles who have been a run funnel, and he did not look great last week against the Tennessee Titans either.

Well, you certainly don't want to have a bad perception going into a divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who are allowing the second-fewest attempts and third-fewest rushing yards per game so far this season. Brian Flores has keyed in on stopping backs, and I expect him to do that again against Green Bay, who ranks 32nd in Pass Rate over Expected through three weeks.

Week 4 DK Metcalf (SEA) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Over 64.5 Rec Yards (-113)

Rithmm Predicts: 87.6 Yards

DTM: 24.1%

This is a boom spot for Metcalf in a gam where the Seahawks could be throwing a lot. I'm looking at the coverage schemes that the Detroit Lions play on defense, and they play Cover 1 at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Against Cover 1, Metcalf has seen 38% TPRR, 47.6% air yard share, 44.2% first read and an insane 36.5% target share, per my buddy Dalton Kates over at Stealing Lines.

The Seahawks currently rank first in the NFL in Pass Rate over Expected, so I'm expecting Ryan Grubb's offense to come out and throw a bunch here. Despite Kenneth Walker finally practicing this week, the Lions have the best run defense in the NFL and I expect that to force Seattle into a heavy pass funnel.

Closing Remarks on the Rithmm Roundup on Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets

Make sure you continue to check out all of our AI NFL Predictions and AI Player Props all season long by using the Rithmm website and app to build fast and informative predictive analytics betting models!

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