Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions - The Rithmm Roundup

Welcome to the Rithmm Roundup for NFL Week 5 player prop bets! Rithmm has tons of tools for you to take advantage of in order to make betting on the NFL (and many other sports) just a little bit easier.

In this weekly column, I'll be taking a close look at our NFL Player Props tools, which you can find on the Rithmm app/website (make sure you sign up for your seven-day FREE trial at the bottom of the column) and picking some NFL Week 5 Player Props and game predictions to spotlight. This article will drop every Friday afternoon, and then in the following week's posts, we'll recap how things went!

Remember, our goal is to make betting a little bit easier for you all with the help of our AI Sports Betting predictive analytical models, so with that said let's dive right into the Week 5 Rithmm Roundup.

Understanding Player Props on Rithmm

First, let's get familiarized a little bit with Rithmm's interface, specifically for AI NFL player props and AI Sports Picks.

Starting with player props, to access the full comprehensive list, simply click on the props button in the bottom left of Rithmm while on the NFL tab. You'll then be presented with a list that looks exactly like this.

You'll see a couple interesting things here. First of all, Rithmm provides up-to-date odds on lines, which is extremely handy so you don't have to head to the sportsbook app to see if the line has changed since seeing it. Our player props tool also will show you what the Rithmm AI model's projection is for that player. Lastly, you'll see a percentage number on the right side, the word DTM, and either a little green star or a yellow caution sign.

DTM stands for Difference to Market, and it represents the difference between Rithmm's prediction and the line that your sportsbook has. Rithmm will compare the probability that the player prop has of winning based on Rithmm's line and the book's line, historical data, and the book's payout to determine the DTM. Once that happens, if the difference falls within a certain window, Rithmm will label it a recommended bet by putting a green star next to it.

Keep in mind that the model is not the end-all, be-all here! We want you to also use the Research tab as well to support your theories when taking NFL Week 5 player props.

Best Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions

Week 4 Record: 3-1

Season Record: 10-5

Let's get into it! These are a few of the best player props for NFL Week 5 that the Rithmm AI Model spit out, along with updated odds and DTM. We'll look at the research behind each play and see why Rithmm recommended it.

Week 5 Gardner Minshew (LVR) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+163)

Rithmm Predicts: 0.8 Pass TDs

DTM: 17.8%

You might be wondering why I'm recommending a prop bet that Rithmm predicts as going over the listed number. That's alright! It's part of how Rithmm works its magic.

Rithmm's AI thinks that despite Minshew being predicted to have 0.8 passing touchdowns in this game, the odds of this under are higher than what they would be if Minshew was actually going to throw 0.8 touchdown passes. The Broncos have been an exceptional passing defense, only allowing three passing TDs through four games this season.

On top of that, Minshew himself has only thrown three TD passes this season, despite a 70% completion percentage and 31 attempts per game. Without Davante Adams (hurt hamstring and wants out of LV) in this game, Minshew could find it hard to move the ball down the field efficiently.

There's also the tiny chance of Minshew simply getting benched if this game gets out of hand, which has already happened once this season and could definitely happen this week.

Week 5 James Conner (ARI) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Rithmm Predicts: 15.5 Receiving Yards

DTM: 12.2%

Conner has been surprisingly inactive in the receiving game over the past few weeks after three catches on four targets in Week 1, but this week presents a get-right opportunity for the longtime vet against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs with nearly 50 given up per week, and Arizona should be throwing in this one.

Week 5 Stefon Diggs (HOU) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Rithmm Predicts: 34.8 Yards

DTM: 42.5%

It certainly feels like Diggs has been great this year, but outside of Week 3, where the Texans fell behind to the Vikings very early and were throwing all game, Diggs has been moderately disappointing, with two games under 40 receiving yards. This is a revenge spot against his former team in the Buffalo Bills, which can always skew things, but it feels like tough sledding for Diggs.

The Bills like to run atwo-high safety zone look, which Diggs has been less than stellar at beating consistently this season. With WR Tank Dell returning from injury this week, we could see an emphasis on getting him involved.

The Bills also know exactly how Diggs likes to play, and HC Sean McDermott could very well focus bracket coverage on Diggs all afternoon long.

Week 5 Braleon Allen (NYJ) Prop Bet Predictions

Pick: Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Rithmm Predicts: 27.9 Yards

DTM: 13.1%

I really like this under. Allen has been extremely productive on limited work, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has gone ovr in each of the last three games. However, this isa prime let-down spot for the talented rookie.

The Vikings are far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL this season, ranking first in Rush DVOA defensively while allowing only 3.8 yards per carry. Teams facing the Vikings this season have been forced into pass-heavy scripts most of the time, and that's without taking into account that the Jets are already 7th in Pass Rate over Expected as a offense.

Closing Remarks on the Rithmm Roundup on Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

Make sure you continue to check out all of our AI NFL Predictions and AI Player Props all season long by using the Rithmm website and app to build fast and informative predictive analytics betting models!

Sign up for your FREE seven-day trial of the Rithmm app and get access to every bit of the tools you need for this NFL season.