3M Open Betting Preview

After the thrilling end to the Open Championship that saw Xander Schauffele win his second major championship of the season, we get a little respite on the schedule for two weeks before the FedEx Cup Playoffs start in Memphis. This week, we head to TPC Twin Cities for the 20243M Open, a relatively newer event but one that has produced some fun finishes.

Lee Hodges is your defending champion here, having run away with the title in 2023 by seven shots. His win was never really in question throughout the final day of play, and he played terrific golf.

Let's dive into my 2024 3M Open course preview and of course, the best bets according to my Rithmm model that we'll be following this week.

2024 3M Open Course Preview

Heading back stateside after spending a couple weeks on the Links-style courses of Scotland will make for a bit of culture shock upon seeing the course setup of TPC Twin Cities, most notably all the water hazards on the course. With 13 total water holes, it ranks as the third-heaviest water danger course on the Tour's schedule, and over 300 balls go into the water each tournament here.

Apart from all the water danger, TPC Twin Cities doesn't have a ton of notable characteristics to it. It is a very flat, green course that reminds players of Florida courses. It features Bentgrass fairways and greens, and it has a pretty simple strategy to it: hit your fairways, hit your greens in regulation, and you'll be just fine.

The greens here are above-average, at around 6,500 average square feet, so it's not uncommon for players to hit a high amount of greens in regulation.

Besides all of the water hazards featured, the main defenses this course has are the long Bluegrass rough and wind, and due to the flatness of the track, the wind in particular can definitely play a role. Despite the easiness on paper, this course can play over par at times and Hodges very much so played a perfect week of golf to finish at -24 in his 2023 victory.

Rithmm Models used for 2024 3M Open Course Preview

In every Course Preview, we’ll be diving into Rithmm’s proprietary model to help you build the best betting model for that week’s course! Rithmm has its own AI model that it generates based on thousands of sims, but you also might want to build your own model, so that’s what this section is for.

When we get into Rithmm’s modeling aspect, it has five customizable sliders that you can mess around with: Recent Performance, Par 5 Performance, Par 4 Performance, Par 3 Performance, and Course Fit. You can adjust these to your heart’s content, and make it reflect the way you see the important stats.

My model for the 2024 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities is below:

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This is a much different kind of model than the last few weeks have shown us. On the other side of the pond, we were looking for a complete test of a golfer's game, and their fit to the course as well as recent form was paramount. The hole-by-hole performance was important, but took a backseat to the intangibles.

For this week, we're going back the other direction. There are definitely facets of the game that we want to hone in on here, none more than Par 4 performance. There are 11 Par 4s on this course, and they rank among the easiest on the PGA Tour, so getting birdies on these holes is absolutely paramount. In addition to that, some of the longer Par 4s could determine the outcome of the tournament as avoiding bogeys and hazards on them will gain you strokes on the field for sure.

The Par 5s at TPC Twin Cities are also very important. Given that there are only three of them on this Par 71, you need to pick up strokes on the rest of the field by birdieing, and if you're long enough, eagling them. According to Ron Klos over at Betsperts Golf, the eagle rate is only around 2.4% on these holes is that they are the toughest set of par-5s on Tour in proximity to the hole when going for the green at an average of 96 feet. No other annual PGA Tour course is within nine feet of that number.

Par 3s take a big step back in this tournament. Three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards and are a few of the toughest holes on the course, so it's much more likely that we see players happy to notch pars on these holes and just move on with their rounds.

Recent Performance, especially at this course, is an interesting case study. Several of the previous winners here did not have the best course history heading in and a couple of the winners had not even previously made a cut at this event before their victories. Still, it's always good to be in good form heading into an event and I feel that some of the field that did not make the trek to Scotland could be well prepared as well.

Lastly, Course Fit is not something that we are looking at a ton this week. The relative unspectacularness of TPC Twin Cities means that a lot of different kinds of players can win here, but approach play and driving top the list of skills, and most of the players in the field will be solid there. This is a classic putting contest, so the player that has the hottest putter will succeed here.

Best Betting Picks for the 3M Open 2024

It’s time to build our Rithmm betting card for this week. We’re going to go into each of Rithmm’s favorite picks for Top 20/10/5 based on my model, and whether I agree or disagree with it.

Top 20: Cameron Davis +175 (44% Rithmm Win Probability)

Davis is an interesting play here. He ranks third in my model this week and also has four straight Top 30 finishes at this event. He tends to perform better on shorter, positional courses, but I think part of the reason he excels at this event is that he ranks ninth in this field in Total Driving over the past three years.

He's the type of player that can absolutely string lots of birdies together, as we saw a few weeks ago with him winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he's also a very solid Par 5 player.

Top 10: Ben Griffin +450 (25.7%)

This week, Benny G is one of my favorite plays. Although course history hasn't been that predictive here in the past, he did finish T20 in 2023 and has been on a very solid run of golf coming into this event.

Griffin is very solid from 175+ yards on approach, which is where over 50% of approaches came from last year, and he has solid finishes on comp courses as well, with a T5 at the John Deere Classic and a T31 at the Rocket Mortgage.

Top 5: Sahith Theegala +500 (17%)

Theegala is a fun play here. A week removed from missing the cut at the Open Championship after almost winning the Genesis Scottish Open, Sahith has seen both sides of Scotland, and I'm sure he'll be happy to be back in the States.

Will Theegala's tendency to spray his driver hurt him too much here to contend? Plenty of people will fade him for that reason, but he's gained strokes off the tee in 13 of his last 15 events, and he possesses the game around the greens that you want on a course like this. He can go low just as easy as most, and has strung together some solid results at comp courses this year.

Outright Winner Pick for the 3M Open: Bily Horschel +2500 (4.7%)

I think plenty of people were rooting for Horschel to win last week's Open Championship. He did everything he was supposed to do, posting a three-under 68 in the final round to finish tied for second with Justin Rose, but he could not stop the inevitable that was Xander Schauffele, who just put together a true masterpiece of a final round that will go down in Open Championship history.

Billy jumps right back on the horse this week, and although there will be calls to fade him, understandably so based off how mentally and physically exhausting last week must have been, these guys are professional golfers. Horschel contended here in his only appearance, finishing T13 in 2023.

I will always root for Billy to play well on courses that are or are close to Florida tracks, because he tends to play his best golf on them. With several great finishes on courses like TPC Twin Cities, if Horschel is mentally there, this is a great opportunity for him to pick up his second win of the 2024 season.

AI Caddie Picks for Round 1

The AI Caddie is an awesome Rithmm tool that allows you to go hole by hole with any player you choose and it will show you a chart of how likely that player is versus the field to get any score on a hole.

Closing Remarks on 2024 3M Open Course Preview

With all of the major championships finished, we now move on to the race to the FedEx Cup Playoffs! TPC Twin Cities is a perfect venue for one of the final legs of the 2023-24 PGA Tour regular season, and it's going to be a great week. I hope that my best bets & course preview gives you all the insights and predictions needed to make informed wagers.

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