Aces vs Dream: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

It’s an interconference clash on the WNBA hardwood as two teams look to secure a victory in Hotlanta. The Las Vegas Aces travel east to face the Atlanta Dream on Friday night. Las Vegas is coming off an 84-79 road win over Seattle on Wednesday night, where they covered the spread as four-point favorites.

Atlanta, on the other hand, suffered a 78-69 road loss to Chicago in their previous game on Wednesday, failing to cover the spread as seven-point underdogs. Over their last 10 meetings, the Aces have dominated with an 8-2 record. However, the Dream secured a 78-74 home win in the first matchup this season on May 31, winning outright as eight-point underdogs.

Preview of my Aces vs Dream AI Prediction

The Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream meet Friday in WNBA action at the Gateway Center. Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more.

Las Vegas Aces Preview

The Las Vegas Aces are having a stellar season and need to maintain their high level of play. Offensively, the Aces are excelling, averaging 89.1 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.3%. They are also proficient from beyond the arc, hitting 34.8% of their three-point attempts.

Additionally, the Aces lead the league in free-throw shooting with a team percentage of 84.3%. Center A’ja Wilson is a major contributor, averaging 26.9 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, continuing to be a driving force for the team.

Defensively, the Aces have room for improvement as they rank eighth, allowing 83.5 points per game. While their offense keeps them competitive, enhancing their defensive consistency will be crucial as the season progresses.

This plays a key role in my Aces vs Dream AI prediction.

Atlanta Dream Preview

Atlanta suffered their fifth consecutive loss and eighth in the last nine games after falling to the Chicago Sky on Wednesday. The Dream, now 7-14, are fifth in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Liberty by 10.5 games for the top spot. They currently rank ninth overall, one game behind the Fever for the final playoff spot. In the game against Chicago, Atlanta started slow, conceding the first seven points but managed to lead by four after the first quarter.

Despite leading by six in the first half, they trailed by four at halftime. The game was tied after three quarters, and the Dream were within one point with 1:23 remaining but ultimately allowed the final eight points, losing and failing to cover the spread.

Atlanta shot 40.6% from the field, including 2 of 10 from three-point range, and committed 14 turnovers. Allisha Gray led the Dream with 20 points and six rebounds.

The Dream rank 12th in the league in scoring, averaging 75.5 points per game. They are seventh in rebounding (34.6 per game) and 12th in assists (18.9 per game). Defensively, they allow 80.8 points per game, ranking sixth in the league.

Key players include Rhyne Howard, who averages 15.4 points and 4.5 rebounds, Allisha Gray with 16.3 points and 4.1 rebounds, Tina Charles with 13.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus with 9.4 points and five rebounds. Other important contributors include Aerial Powers, Haley Jones, Naz Hillmon, Jordin Canada, Crystal Dangerfield, Nia Coffey, Lorela Cubaj, and Laeticia Amihere.

The Dream are last in the league in field goal percentage at 41.1%, 10th in three-pointers made per game (5.6), and tied for eighth in three-point percentage (31.8%). They rank eighth in free throw percentage, shooting 77.6% from the stripe.

Rhyne Howard is out indefinitely after injuring her ankle on June 19 against the Lynx. Jordin Canada injured her finger on July 2 and will be out until after the Olympic break.

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How I Use Rithmm Models for Aces vs Dream AI Prediction

With Rithmm’s AI sports betting model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game.

Recent Form and Head-to-Head:

• The Aces are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Dream, including a 23-point victory in their only matchup this season. Las Vegas has been dominant, winning their last three games by a combined 44 points​

Point Spread Trends:

• The Aces have been strong against the spread (ATS), going 5-1 ATS when laying 16 or more points this season. Conversely, the Dream have struggled following an ATS win, going 0-4 ATS in such situations​.

Scoring Trends:

• The Aces have surpassed 100 points in three of their last four games, while the Dream have given up big numbers against top teams. The Over is 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven road games​.

Offensive and Defensive Metrics:

• Las Vegas ranks among the top in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage, assists, and offensive rating. The Dream, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, ranking in the league's bottom half in these categories​.

Injuries:

• Atlanta might be without their star, Rhyne Howard, which could further impact their offensive output against a high-powered Aces lineup​.

If you’re looking to read about AI Backed WNBA picks you can check them out here.

My Aces vs Dream AI Prediction

These teams have been performing at drastically different levels recently. Las Vegas is on a hot streak, averaging 94.2 points over their last five games, while Atlanta has struggled, averaging just 75.3 points in their previous four games. This disparity is consistent with their season-long performance: the Aces lead the WNBA with a 107.7 offensive rating, while the Dream are at the bottom with a 94.6 offensive rating.

Injuries have further hampered Atlanta, exacerbating their struggles as they face off against a superior team in Las Vegas. The effective shooting percentages also highlight this gap, with the Aces second in the league at 52.2%, whereas the Dream rank last at 45.4%. Given these statistics, betting on the Las Vegas Aces to cover the 13.5-point spread appears to be the smarter choice.

Selection: Aces -13.5

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Best of luck everybody!