Alabama vs LSU: AI Predictions - College Football
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We are down to the wire in the College Football season and every game for teams in the top 25 matters for the push to the first 12-team playoff bracket. The SEC, which year after year produces National Champion contenders, have seven teams in the top 25 as we enter Week 11.
Preview of my Alabama vs. LSU Prediction
In this rivalry match up, historical power houses, the 11th ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visit the 15th ranked LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge at 7:30pm EST on ABC.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview
In their first season in the post-Nick Saban era, new head coach, Kalen DeBoer, has done as solid of a job as you could ask for. The Crimson Tide are 6-2 and ranked 11th. They are right in the thick of the playoff race. The offense has been clicking all season, scoring an average of 37.6 points per game which ranks 16th in the country. They have a well-balanced offense with 254.1 passing yards per game and 177.6 rushing yards per game. The 177.6 rushing yards per game is good for 47th in the country.
They are led by Junior quarterback Jalen Milroe and freshman standout receiver, Ryan Williams. Milroe is completing 65.4 percent of his passes against the AP top 25 and has a 136.0 passer rating against the top 25. Williams has accumulated 702 yards and seven touchdowns in their first eight games.
The Crimson Tide are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
LSU Tigers Preview
The LSU Tigers, led by veteran head coach, Brian Kelly, come into this match up with a 6-2 record and ranked 15th in the country. They have been ranked all season and as high as eighth last week but dropped this week coming off of a tough loss to Texas A&M.
The Tigers are averaging 32.8 points per game and 448 yards per game as a team. They are ranked 34th in total points per game and 21st in total yards per game. Their offense is much more reliant on their passing game and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. They average 332.8 yards per game passing and just 115.3 rushing.
LSU is converting on 49.07 percent of their third downs and staying on the field with a 31:44 time of possession per game. Over the last five games, LSU is 4-1 against the spread.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Alabama vs LSU AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is Alabama -3 and 58.5.
This is a major rivalry game and is being played in Baton Rouge, home of the LSU Tigers. With a talented team like the Tigers, it’s always surprising to see them as home dogs. I would anticipate they come out firing on all cylinders in front of their home crowd and take advantage of their comfortable, passing offense. I would lean towards taking the points with LSU.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first customized model that I created, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that greatly emphasizes an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system heavily. This model has LSU at +3.4 which is a 0.4-point edge on the given spread but towards the Alabama side. This is surprising because of LSU’s much more prolific passing offense.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model also has the LSU +3.4. This is a 0.4-point edge towards the Alabama side.
Lastly, the “Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has LSU +3.2. Like the others, this model slightly favors Alabama against the given spread.
My Alabama vs LSU AI Prediction
Having done my own research and despite all three models showing slight edges towards Alabama, I am going to stick with my initial assessment. I am banking on the home crowd atmosphere and LSU relying on a strong passing offense and solid defense to keep this game close. I’m taking the LSU Tigers +3 in the Alabama vs LSU match up.
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