Alabama vs Tennessee: AI Predictions - College Football

In the 107th meeting of two storied SEC schools, we see the #7 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide roll into Knoxville to take on the #11 ranked Tennessee Volunteers. These two teams last played in 2023 with the Volunteers coming out hot and putting up 20 points going into the half only to be shut out in the second half and giving up 27 points in a 34 - 20 loss to the Tide.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for the Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers.

Preview of Alabama vs Tennessee AI Prediction

• Date: Saturday October 19th
• Time: 3:30 PM ET
• Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
• Surface: Natural Grass
• How to Watch: ABC

Alabama Preview

The 7th ranked Tide come into Tennessee after their second flat performance since beating then #1 ranked Georgia. Two weeks ago they lost a shocker to Vanderbilt 40 - 35 where they were simply outplayed and last week squeaked out a win against an unranked South Carolina team 27 - 25 only after the Gamecocks recovered an onside kick and then threw an interception with 13 seconds left to seal the win for Alabama.

Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer downplayed the win a bit saying "Another game down to the wire...We're kind of getting accustomed to those. There's some things that we can do to make sure it doesn't get to that point. But we always talk about finding a way to win. As many times as it looked like we weren't, we did."

This is not your father's Alabama team.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe has thrown for 1483 yards this season on 96 of 132 passing (72.7%) along with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also run the ball 77 times for 319 yards and 11 touchdowns and has more rushes than the second highest rusher on the Alabama offense in Jam Miller. Miller has carried the ball 51 times for 360 yards and five touchdowns.

Milroe was 16 of 23 for 209 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against South Carolina last week as well as rushing for 36 yards on 18 carries and two TD's. His favorite targets this season have been Freshman Ryan Williams who has 23 catches and 576 yards, a 25 yard per catch average, and six touchdowns and wideout Germie Bernard who has 20 catches for 309 yards and two touchdowns.

The Alabama defense was simply dominant in the first half against Georgia but has since given up 63 points in its last 10 quarters. They will have to bring that first half Georgia intensity to overcome this Tennessee offense and their solid rushing game.

Alabama is currently ranked 7th in the AP Top 25 as well as 3rd in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Tennessee Preview

Tennessee enters this game 5 - 1 and coming off of an overtime win against the Florida Gators last week 23 - 17. The early season powerhouse Volunteers looked sluggish in the first half going into the break down 3 - 0 and quickly went down 10 - 0 as the 3rd quarter opened, but the team settled down a bit and was able to pull out the overtime win on a missed Gator field goal in extra time and a 23-yard scamper by Junior running back Dylan Sampson.

Sampson was the Tennessee offense last week going for 112 yards on 27 carries and three touchdowns. Sampson has 699 yards on the season on 118 carries (5.9 yards avg) with 15 touchdowns and has scored a rushing touchdown in each game this season.

Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava was 16 of 26 for 169 yards with no touchdowns and one interception last week against Florida and is 94 for 143 (65.7%) for 1219 yards on the season with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

Tennessee's defense is their strength and when the offense gives them time to rest they are one of the best in the country. They rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense at 10.7 points per game allowing 4.0 yards per play on the season. If they can pressure Milroe into making mistakes and can keep a spy on him to avoid him beating you with his legs, then the Volunteers have a solid shot at winning this game.

Tennessee is currently ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 as well as 7th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Alabama vs Tennessee AI Prediction

I've been handed a few difficult games to write about this season and this one is no exception. Powerhouse SEC rivalry games always have the potential to be the next "game of the century" so it can be difficult to assess how to look at these types of games.

It's one of the many reasons I like going to my Rithmm app to get a different perspective on my own metrics.

There's a part of me that really wants to take Tennessee here. They are playing at home. They are playing for their shot at the newly expanded playoffs. They started the season on fire and will definitely be amped up in front of their home crowd playing against what is arguably the Darth Vader of college football. Everyone wants to beat Alabama.

But I don't think they will.

Alabama needed a lot of things to go their way last week against the Gamecocks and, on the heels of the Vanderbilt loss no less. But I expect them to come into Knoxville prepared and ready to play. If their offense can protect Milroe and allow him time to throw, he can be deadly. And if the Volunteers do get pressure on him, he can beat you with his feet. It's a dangerous combination and one I think the Tide will be up for.

This line opened at -140 (DK) for Alabama and has moved up to as high as -160 at some books. As of this writing, the money is heavy on the Alabama moneyline with a 68% bet split. And if you're one who likes the spread, that line is even heavier at a 71% bet split for Alabama, as we’re seeing that line move from a -1.5 to a -3 today.

I'm not much of a spread better so I'll be taking Alabama on the moneyline -145

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