Arizona vs Kansas State: AI Predictions

Friday Night Conference games are officially here and we have a banger to kickoff Week Three weekend of College Football in #20 Arizona visiting Manhattan, KS to take on Avery Johnson and #14 Kansas State. See below how I used the Rithmm app to get my AI prediction for Duke vs Northwestern. 

Preview of Arizona vs Kansas State AI Predictions

Two high powered offenses squaring off on Fox at night to welcome us with open arms to this week three slate, and my Rithmm model has the AI prediction just for you to start week three in green. I mentioned this pick in my podcast, Family Feats, as well with my model readings because I loved it that much so without further or do, let’s get into the Arizona vs Kansas State AI prediction.

Arizona Preview 

Arizona waltz over into Manhattan, KS to play a game in the Battle of The Wildcats I guess you could say, in one of the more anticipated ranked games that bettors were looking into at the beginning of the season. Their first two games have been quite polar opposites though I must say.

With 61 points in the season opener, Fifita slung for 422 yards with 4 touchdowns under Brent Brennan’s first game while Biletnikoff watch list superstar Tetairoa McMillan went OFF for 304 yards on 10 catches and snagged all 4 of Fifita’s touchdowns. However, in the second game is what makes us concerned vs Northern Arizona.

The Offensive Line looked rather uncomfortable and allowed 10 pressures alone despite being down their long time Center, Josh Baker. On the bright side of this game, the defense massively improved since allowing a whopping 39 points to New Mexico. As of now, the Arizona defense also ranks 11th in passes defended throughout the country as well, the only bad side to that is that once opponents are crossing midfield into their territory, they’ve consistently been scored on.

9 drives past midfield with nearly 5.5 points per drive, not ideal especially vs a high powered KSU offense. It is also worth noting Arizona’s defense falls into Kansas State’s perfect scheme, the rush attack. Arizona falls 77th in yards rushing and a 69th stuff rate over the run, also not ideal. 

This plays a key role in my Arizona vs Kansas State AI prediction.

Kansas State Preview 

Kansas has been nothing short of impressive despite a slight trap game at Tulane last week which was expected. They’ve pounded the ball on the ground extremely well giving QB Avery Johnson and RB DJ Giddens each more than 6+ yards per carry. To me, the only thing standing in their way are third downs.

Through two weeks they’ve been horrifically attempting to convert on third downs going a depressing 6 for 20. To counter Arizona’s pass rush, Avery Johnson has proved he can slide in the pocket and is very mobile but he cannot throw downfield.

He has not been sacked once and it’s not props to the Offensive line because the amount of pressures say otherwise. It’s worth noting that Johnson has also not thrown over 200 yards once this season yet, even though it’s only two games in. However, it’s justified given KSU’s success on the ground and the saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

On the defensive side for KSU, they rank within the top 20 of rush defenses in the country, and 4th in tackles for loss, both edge rushers Mott and Osunsanmi have accounted for 5 sacks combined already this year and that’s not very well for Arizona given their most recent performance vs Northern Arizona.

KSU’s biggest concern will be their passing defense as they rank a terrible 128th, and if you are Arizona OC Dino Baber, you are foaming at the mouth right now. Just last week vs Tulane KSU allowed 342 passing yards.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Arizona vs Kansas State AI Prediction:

Ultimately, if Arizona can grab a lead and simply hang on by coming through with big plays through the air, it could look like a road dog coming up and taking this one outright. KSU’s defense has been excellent against the run but simply given their success on defense through the passing attack makes me heavily lean Arizona here to cover the +8.5 line and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.

You could also say that what has been explained makes it seem like a clear Over total play, yet my model only gave the green light for Arizona on +8.5 and a slight green star on the ML to take them outright at a pretty +230. 

Before we do anything else after reading and doing my research, I head over to my Rithmm model to see what it suggests and as stated before we do have green stars on Arizona +8.5 and all three of my models lit up green for the ML (+223).

The spread is showing a 58.7% win probability with a decently high DTM of 12.1%. On the moneyline, I’m showing DTM’s on all three models higher than 29% with the highest win probability being 41.5%, which gives me that reassurance that I need for this prediction. I’m definitely willing to back the statistically better team with a more high powered offense for this kind of value. 

With Baker practicing this week gives me hope the offensive line should improve as a whole considering he is one of the captains of this team and was a big missing link last week. If Fifita can take advantage of KSU’s DB’s, they should have no problem finding success through the air and not just McMillan. Through two weeks of play, KSU DC Joe Klanderman has seemingly loved going to Cover 1 style defenses with a touch of Quarters here and there.

Lucky for us, Fifita has absolutely diced up Cover 1’s and Quarters. Most of the star QB’s success has been between the numbers this season and surely cannot see him slowing down Friday Night. We know both offenses will have advantages but the clear side with more advantages here in my opinion is Arizona, we just need to trust McMillan and Fifita to continue what they did in week 1 and give us big play breaks which is expected to happen quite often this season.
The weather is giving us amazing night football weather with little to no wind in sight. I'm excited to watch this Arizona passing attack shred the KSU defense. 

I used all of this data in my in my Arizona vs Kansas State AI prediction.

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