Boise State vs Penn State: AI Sports Prediction
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The CFB Playoff quarterfinal gets underway tonight with a matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Boise State Broncos in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.
Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for Penn State vs Boise State.
Preview of Penn State vs Boise State AI Prediction
- Date: Tuesday December 31
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
- Surface: Natural Grass
- How to Watch: ESPN
Penn State Preview
The Nittany Lions ended their season with a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game but was able to bounce back in the first round of the playoffs, soundly beating SMU 38 - 10.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar went 13 of 22 for 127 yards passing and was sacked three times while running backs Nicholas Singleton ran for 90 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown and Kaytron Allen carried 11 times for 70 yards and two touchdowns.
The real stars of the game were the Lions defense who held a potent Boise St. offense to 195 yards passing and only 58 yards rushing while having three sacks and two pick-six's. Junior walk-on Dominic DeLuca shined as he had two interceptions on the day, running one back for a touchdown, and had 5 total tackles.
“Dom is just a baller,” Penn State head coach James Franklin said after picking up his 100th victory with the school.
Penn State is ranked 8th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.
Boise State Preview
The Broncos finished their season with a 12 - 1 (8-0 MWC) record and found themselves with a bye in the first round of the playoffs after beating UNVL 21 - 7 to win the Mountain West Conference Championship.
Running back Ashton Jeanty, who has 2,714 yards on the season, carried the ball 32 times for 209 yards including a 75 yard touchdown run. It was his 5th touchdown run of 70 yards or more this season.
Sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen went 18 for 27 for 158 yards passing with a touchdown as well as rushing for a 14-yard touchdown with 2:40 left in the first half.
“The Fiesta Bowl is a stamp on the Boise State football tradition,” Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen said. “That standard is something I’m not taking lightly, nor do I think this team is taking lightly.”
Boise State is ranked 25th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.
How I use Models for Penn State vs Boise State AI Prediction
There's so many good games on the playoff slate this weekend and this game should be no exception. Both teams have running backs that can put you in a hole fast and both defenses will be roundly tested tonight.
My Rithmm models have been working overtime on the playoffs and are primed to provide some much needed insight.
I have been truly surprised by the line opening at -10.5 for Penn State. Good team, deserving of being here, but are they really 10 points better than Boise State on a neutral field? The public seems to think so with a 55% bet split to the Lions covering this spread.
So what do my models show me? Two of them show Boise State taking care of business and covering the +11.5 spread, and the model above is showing a 70.7% win probability! With that kind of percentage it's surprising that it's showing a caution, but we have to take those things into account when looking at this game.
Penn State showed some real grit last week when they easily beat a very good SMU team. But can they handle this Boise State running game? For that matter, can Boise State handle the Penn State running game?
This is why we love our Rithmm app so much as it helps take the emotional bias out of the equation.
All that being said, I'll be taking Boise State +11.5.
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