Boston College vs Virginia Tech: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

Virginia Tech welcomes ACC foe, Boston College, into Blacksburg, VA with some classic hostile environment football on a Thursday evening. Fortunately for Boston College this is nothing new to them and they look to prove the books wrong yet again in this, what should be, a fist fight to the end, however, the Eagles look for their first win in Lane Stadium since 2018.

Preview of Rithmm’s Boston College - Virginia Tech AI Prediction:

This tough environment for the Eagles is nothing new thus far.

On the other hand, this season so far doesn’t quite look like the one Hokie fans were hoping for this season. Going from an ACC dark horse to a 3-3 team that people just tossed out the window. They haven’t been getting blown out, just playing down to teams they shouldn’t play down to. Offensively they rank about low to mid 90’s in success rate, and 58th in finishing drives. 

Boston College Preview

As we stand in week 7, BC has had to play on the road at FSU, at Missouri, and at a sleeper Virginia team. Not to mention in these three games, they played up to their competition, beating FSU outright in Doak Campbell, putting up a dog fight in Missouri covering a massive 14.5 spread, and then dropping a game at Virginia, their most recent game, before heading into their bye week this last week. 

With that being said, a full extra week to prepare for yet another tough road environment, I would expect nothing less than another competitive finish out of the Eagles. BC has returned multiple key starters this year in what has sparked such a great 4-2 start such as speedy QB Thomas Castellanos, lead RB Kye Robichaux, and their WR1, Lewis Bond. Castellanos and co. looked solid in the loss to Virginia despite the final score, only key issues being two interceptions. If turnovers can be avoided, BC should have no trouble keeping this one close. Castellanos will be the focus of a Virginia Tech defense that is tied for the ACC lead with 20 sacks. The only issue here is the Eagles’ defense, which managed to allow 24 unanswered to the Cavaliers. 

The Eagles defense has been phenomenal in ACC play only allowing 17.2 points per game on average. Now we just need a simple favor from veteran HC Bill O’brien, a big bounce back week. Defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku has led the Eagles' defensively, entering the week with an ACC-best nine sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss and look to contain VT’s talented QB on the other side, Kyron Drones. 

Virginia Tech Preview

The Hokies look light years better since their opening loss at Vandy, and a big bounce back last week was much needed after losing two straight. VT managed to score a touchdown in every quarter last week vs Stanford and their defense would go on to force two turnovers. A wild stat/fact for you, Hokies have scored a touchdown in seven of their last eight quarters, which is very good if you cannot tell. Despite Tech’s tough loss in Miami they definitely proved they belong back in ACC Title conversations which they 100% should still. Just two years ago this team went 1-6 in ACC play and then proceeded to go 5-3 in ACC play full time. If Drones has a similar week to last week’s game, BC will be in for a long night. 

Tech is a rush first team yet they rank 78th in rush success rate and 60th in rushing EPA. With that being said VT RB, Bhayshul Tuten leads the ACC with rushing TD’s (9). On the flip side to that, Hokies are 102nd in passing success rate, 60th in passing PPA yet they are very explosive at times. The key strength of this VT team is their defense and getting after QB’s. Passing defense has been solid but they’ll need to be better when facing Castellanos. 32nd in pass success rate allowed, 52nd in passing PPA allowed, yet again they let up a ton of explosive plays ranking 96th in pass explosiveness allowed. Part of that would be because their coverage ranks 91st in the country in coverage grade.

How I use my Rithmm model for Boston College - Virginia Tech Prediction

When coming up with my prediction suggested by Rithmm, I know for a fact now that the key play in this matchup will be explosive plays which is what we’re backing here. BC, one of the best offenses in the ACC in the passing attack, and then VT, one of the worst defenses in the ACC allowing these said explosive plays through the air. The only advantage to VT in my opinion is their pass rush, the issue with that? They can get to Castellanos all they want, but they will not contain him.

Coming off injury and extended rest, I’ll side with the better QB and better offense in a hostile environment that they’re plenty familiar with.

As shown above per my Rithmm models, they all three agree on the one pick I was looking for, Boston College ML for great value at +231. However, using Rithmm’s line shopping tool I was able to find this play at +240. With high DTM’s like 41.1% and 23.1%, I love that model agreed with me here. With all models lighting up for the ML, I had to also take the +7 spread. I think this line is an overreaction from the market due to the hostile environment, and overall should be closer to a 4.5 to 5.5 range personally. In my opinion I would only take anything higher than 6.5. Realistically, just because there is a chance you can get hooked but in case the outright win is dead, I’d still love them to cover in this spot whether by a backdoor or keeping this in a fist fight.

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