Clemson vs SMU: AI Predictions
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It’s Championship Week in NCAA Football and there’s more drama then ever before with the introduction of the 12-team playoff for the first time. Apart of that drama is the ACC and it’s championship participants, the Clemson Tigers and the SMU Mustangs.
According to the rules, the winner of this game will get an automatic ticket to the playoff. The Tigers are ranked 17th coming into the game and are likely on the outside looking in with a loss but or course, earn a bid with a win. But SMU, ranked 9th, still has a chance to get a spot in the playoff even with a loss, and would then take a spot from another contending team. With a lot on the line, let’s dive into the ACC Championship Game of the Clemson Tigers vs the SMU Mustangs.
Preview of my Clemson vs. SMU Prediction
The Clemson Tigers have been the most successful ACC team in the recent past. But by all accounts, this isn’t the most successful year. Even still, coming into the ACC Championship Game, with a 9-4 record, they still have a chance at the playoff.
The 17th ranked Tigers are led by a strong offense both in the passing game and running game. Their 465.7 yards per game is ranked 8th in the country and their 35.7 points per game is ranked 14th in the country.
The SMU Mustangs have been one of the best teams in the ACC all season. Coming into the year unranked, they suffered an early season loss to BYU in week 3 but have been perfect since that point. With just one loss, they are well on their way to the 12-team playoff.
Their offense is led by a balance attack from sophomore quarterback, Kevin Jennings who averages 228.83 yards in the air and senior running back Brashard Smith who accumulated 1,157 yards on the ground for a 96.4 yards per game average. As a team, they average 441.8 yards in total which is good for 21st in the country.
Clemson Tigers Preview
Junior quarterback, Cade Klubnik, surpassed 3,000 passing yards this season and threw for 29 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Wide receiver, Antonio Williams was his favorite target on the year, accumulating 788 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. On the ground, Clemson was led by senior running back Phil Mafah. He ran for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns.
As a team, the Tigers were able to stay on the field and rack up points with their high third down conversion. At 45.5 percent, they are 24th best in the nation at converting. Despite losing four games, their turnover margin, +14, is the 5th best in the country and has contributed to a lot of easy points and wins.
The Clemson Tigers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games and have hit the over just 1 time in the last 5 games.
SMU Mustangs Preview
On a points per game basis, SMU ranked 5th in the country with 39.2 points per game. Like Clemson, they have a tendency to convert on third downs and stay on the field, converting on 46.1 percent of the time which is 20th in the country. The team, unfortunately, hasn’t helped has much success in the turnover department. They have given up the ball 19 total times and have forced just 21 for a +2 margin.
The SMU Mustangs are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games and the over has hit three times in their last five games.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Clemson vs SMU AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is SMU -2.5 and 55.5.
While looking into this game through the lens of the Rithmm app and the customizable model, there did not seem to be much of an edge or consensus that I was comfortable with on the spread. Because of this, I focused on the total points as a way to gain an edge. Both these offenses are high powered and prolific so I feel there may be an opportunity there.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first customized model that I created, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that greatly emphasizes offensive minded teams, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system heavily. This model has the over/under as 55.9 which is a 0.4-point advantage on the given total.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the over/under as 56.5 which shows a 1-point spread towards the over.
Lastly, the “Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has the over/under at 56.1 total points, representing a 0.6-point edge towards the over.
My Clemson vs SMU AI Prediction
Having done my own research and with all three models showing slight edges towards the over, I am going to stick with my initial assessment. With both teams looking to earn a playoff birth and with how these offenses have performed all year, I am expecting it to be a high scoring game. I’m taking the OVER at 55.5 in the Clemson vs SMU match up.
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