The Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks in a game that’s loaded with injury question marks but still shows value in the totals market. With both teams struggling to contain opponents and Memphis surging offensively at home, this Mavericks vs Grizzlies prediction looks at AI model projections, trends, injury reports, and the best odds for betting the total on Saturday.

Preview of Mavericks vs Grizzlies Predictions

The Mavericks haven’t been great at cashing overs lately, but the Grizzlies vs Mavericks total line may be too low considering Memphis’ scoring surge. Memphis has scored over 118 points per game across their last five and the model projects another high-output performance.

Dallas, despite a string of injuries, still has enough pace and firepower to keep this one competitive. When looking at Mavericks vs Grizzlies picks, the value leans toward the over.

Who is Favored to Win Mavericks vs Grizzlies?

This game is expected to be close with no major spread edge, but Rithmm’s AI model has the Grizzlies winning 122.2 to 109.5. That 231.7 combined point total edges out most books’ totals, making Mavericks vs Grizzlies best bets lean toward the over.

Injury Reports for Mavericks vs Grizzlies

Both teams are banged up, but the Grizzlies still manage to score efficiently at home, supporting our Mavericks vs Grizzlies over prediction.

Grizzlies Injuries:

• Luke Kennard (Day-to-Day – Knee)
• Jaren Jackson (Day-to-Day – Back)
• Ja Morant (Day-to-Day – Shoulder)
• Brandon Clarke (Out for Season – Knee)
• Desmond Bane (Day-to-Day – Adductor)
• Santi Aldama (Day-to-Day – Ankle)
• Scotty Pippen (Day-to-Day – Back)
• Zyon Pullin (Out – Knee)
• Zach Edey (Day-to-Day – Ankle)
• Jaylen Wells (Out for Season – Wrist)

Mavericks Injuries:

• Anthony Davis (Out – Adductor)
• Klay Thompson (Out – Foot)
• Kyrie Irving (Out for Season – Knee)
• P.J. Washington (Out – Ankle)
• Caleb Martin (Day-to-Day – Hip)
• Dereck Lively (Day-to-Day – Ankle)
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out for Season – Wrist)

Mavericks vs Grizzlies Trends and Betting History

• Mavericks Over/Under Record (Last 5): 2-3
• Grizzlies Over/Under Record (Last 5): 1-4
• Mavericks Away O/U Record: 1-1
• Grizzlies Home O/U Record: 1-0
• Mavericks as Underdog O/U: 1-2
• Grizzlies as Favorite O/U: 0-3
• Mavericks Avg Points Per Game: 105.4
• Grizzlies Avg Points Per Game: 118.6

These Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting trends may not scream “over,” but the model projection and pace metrics say otherwise.

Model Used for Mavericks vs Grizzlies Best Bets

Rithmm’s NBA AI model prediction:

• Grizzlies 122.2 – Mavericks 109.5

The AI gives a 57.8% win probability for the over at 228.5 total points with -110 odds, making it one of the most actionable Mavericks vs Grizzlies picks for totals bettors.

What Chance Do Mavericks and Grizzlies Have of Going Over?

Given the AI projection of 231.7 total points, there’s strong value on the over. Despite mixed historical results, this matchup shapes up well for points, especially with Memphis scoring nearly 120 per game recently. That’s why our Mavericks vs Grizzlies predictions favor the over as a smart betting angle.

Best Odds for Mavericks vs Grizzlies Total

Line shopping gives you the best shot at maximizing value. Here’s where you can get the best number for the Mavericks vs Grizzlies total:

• PointsBet: Over 227.5 (-115) ✅ Best Odds
• DraftKings: Over 229.0 (-108)
• FanDuel: Over 228.0 (-110)
• Bet365NewJersey: Over 228.5 (-110)
• SugarHouseNJ: Over 229.0 (-111)
• MGM: Over 228.5 (-110)
• WilliamHillNewJersey: Over 228.5 (-110)

To get the best return on your Mavericks vs Grizzlies bets, take Over 227.5 (-115) at PointsBet while it’s still live.

My Pick for Mavericks vs Grizzlies

Both rosters are depleted, but that hasn’t slowed down Memphis offensively. Their recent home form, combined with the model projection and poor defensive depth for both teams, points toward value on the total.

Best Bet: Over 227.5 (-115)

Explore More Mavericks vs Grizzlies Prediction

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