Dolphins vs Bills: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game
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We are officially in the second half of the 2024 NFL season and teams are jockeying to gain ground in the standings and for their playoff push. The Buffalo Bills play host to the Miami Dolphins at 1:00pm EST.
The match up features the AFC East first place Bills (6-2) with the MVP front runner in quarterback Josh Allen and the Dolphins (2-5) who will have their starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, back for the second straight week.
Preview of my Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
Let’s take a look at the Dolphins vs Bills AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this AFC East showdown.
Miami Dolphins Preview
The Miami Dolphins came into the 2024 season with high expectations despite losing quickly in the playoffs last season. They had visions of going toe-to-toe with the Bills and Jets for the AFC East crown. Unfortunately, Tua Tagovailoa suffered yet another concussion in week 2 against the Bills and missed the next four games.
The Dolphins were 1-1 after he left with injury and went 1-3 over the next four games using back up quarterbacks. Though they lost to the Arizona Cardinals last week, Tua provided a spark and consistency to the team and Head Coach, Mike McDaniel, was able to utilize his entire playbook.
For the season, the Dolphins rank 26th in passing yards per game with 186.3 yards, but they rank 9th in rushing yards per game with 131.7 yards. They are having difficulty staying on the field with their 38.5 percent third down conversion rate which has them ranked 18th in the league. All of this has led to their most disappointing statistic. They rank last in the league with 13.9 points per game.
Hopefully with Tua Tagovailoa back in the fold, and with Tyreke Hill at full strength, the Dolphins can regain some of that offense magic.
The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games and they are 1-2 as the away team against the spread.
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Buffalo Bills are clicking in every facet of the game recently. They come into this match up with a three-game lead and a strangle hold in the AFC East. Josh Allen, the MVP favorite, is finding his groove and even still improving with each week as he gets comfortable with a new surrounding cast.
As a team, the offense rank 13th in total yards per game with 336.5 yards, and fifth in the league in points per game with 28.8. The offense has only turned the ball over three times all year and the defense has caused 14 turnovers. The +11 differential is the best in the league and helping the Bills get out to early leads.
The Bills haven’t been great on third down, converting just 37 percent of the time which is 21st in the league but they are making up for it with redzone conversion rate, scoring a touchdown 67.6 percent of the time they enter the redzone.
The Bills defense surrenders just 18.3 points per game which is the 6th best in the league. The defense has accumulated 20 sacks and 50 tackles for loss on the season for an average of 8.75 such plays per game.
The Bills are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games and 1-0 as the home team against the spread.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Dolphins vs Bills AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is Bills -6 and 49 points. This is an interesting game to analyze because of the vastly different situation the Dolphins are in now with their starting quarterback playing again vs how they stacked up during those four weeks he was absent. The Bills are also playing well at the moment having won three games in a row and the last two by an average of 22.5 points.
The Bills won the first match up of the season 31-10 but of course, this is the game that Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Looking at the numbers and the trends of these teams, I am leaning towards betting the spread but which side remains to be seen.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I customized, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that favors an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model has the Dolphins +2.5 which shows a 3.5-point edge on the given spread. This is a recommended bet from the Rithmm app.
The next model I customized for the NFL season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Dolphins at +1.6 which again shows a significant edge to the Dolphins of 4.4 points against the given spread. This is also a recommended bet from the Rithmm app.
Lastly, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has the Dolphins getting 5.6 point which is just a 0.4-point edge on the given spread.
My Dolphins vs Bills AI Prediction
With my own research and with all three of the models showcasing an edge on the given spread towards the Dolphins, I am leaning towards taking the visiting team with the points. With Tua back healthy and his feet on the ground, the Dolphins will be able to run with the Bills and keep it close. This being a recommended bet by Rithmm on two of the three models is the assurance I am looking for. With the Dolphins back at full strength, I’m taking the DOLPHINS +6 in the Dolphins vs Bills match up.
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