Dolphins vs Bills: NFL Predictions - TNF

It's "officially" the first Thursday Night Football of the 2024 NFL season!

I know, I know. We had the Chiefs vs Ravens last week on Thursday! It technically doesn't count, but here we are. This week, though, the Buffalo Bills travel south to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Both teams are 1-0, and this should be a great game.

We'll be breaking down the game preview, our Rithmm model for this matchup, and my prediction for this game, so let's get into our Dolphins vs Bills TNF Predictions for Week 2.

Dolphins vs Bills TNF Preview

This Thursday Night Football football game will feature two AFC East teams that are facing off for the first time this season, but are plenty familiar with each other and how they play.

The Dolphins will take their 1-0 record into this game after coming back to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. On a day where star WR Tyreek Hill got detained over a speeding violation and still put up over 100 yards and a touchdown, the Dolphins looked a bit shaky but ground out the win.

As of this writing, the statuses of Dolphins RBs De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are still up in the air. Neither practiced on Tuesday after exiting with ankle and chest injuries, respectively, near the end of Sunday's game. It's possible that they will play, but you should also be checking out highlights of rookie RB Jaylen Wright if you aren't familiar, as he will presumably be active for the first time if one or both do not go.

On the Bills' side of things, this is a chance for them to continue their dominance versus their AFC East rivals. The Bills have won four straight against Miami and this is a game that they'd love to win as well.

QB Josh Allen suffered a hand injury in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals but practiced in full on Tuesday and should be good to go. The Bills' new-look receiving offense, featuring rookie WR Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir had their moments against the Cardinals, but this is definitely an offense that would benefit from TE Dalton Kincaid not having more stinker games.

That feeds right into my Rithmm custom sports betting model that I built for this game.

Dolphins vs Bills Thursday Night Football Rithmm Model

Building NFL models using Rithmm's technology is super easy! All you need to do is go into the Rithmm website or app, click on the models tab under NFL, and either click 'Build a Model For Me' or 'Personalize a Model'. The first option will auto-generate a model for you using our AI simulations and backtesting to determine what works.

After clicking 'Personalize a Model', you can build your model, either by utilizing the pre-made factors, or if you have Rithmm Premium, you can build your own custom factors using any variety of our numerous research analytics. Once that model has finishing its "training" and you name it, you're ready to track some NFL bets!

For a complete look, check out how to build a Rithmm NFL prediction model.

This is a model that I put together specifically to target totals in games. As you can see, the backtesting is immensely accurate from a betting perspective when it comes to game totals, with a near-70% success rating.

I think there's a chance that this game is an extremely high or low total, which goes into my model choice for this game. Both offenses rely heavily on downfield passing (Miami a tad more), but this is a short week with some bumps and bruises on both sides.

Dolphins vs Bills TNF Game Prediction

It’s time to see my game prediction for Week 2 TNF. We’re going to go into my prediction that is based on my custom Rithmm model, and why I think it's a good choice.

If you want to see the full predictions for this game, including our recommended player props, make sure you sign up for your FREE seven-day trial of Rithmm by clicking at the bottom of the page!

TNF Game Prediction for Bills @ Dolphins

Pick: Under 49

Win Probability: 56.2%

DTM: 7.3%

We told you we're targeting totals with this model... well we got one!

A matchup between the Bills and Dolphins won't normally scream "under", but in this circumstance I think it makes sense. You have two teams both coming off a Sunday game, not to mention both have somewhat significant injury possibilities to skill-position players.

I simply think this is too high of a total. Four out of the six games that the teams have played in Miami since Josh Allen have gone under this total, and this is a divisional matchup that both teams want to beat the other up to win.

One thing I'm noting is that Bills' offensive coordinator Joe Brady has taken a very run-heavy approach to Buffalo's offense since taking the reigns midway through last season. The Bills only passed 43% of the time, coming in 16th in Neutral Pass Rate, per Underdog Fantasy, so it will be interesting to see what approach he takes.

Lastly, there is a strong chance of rainy weather in this game. The Dolphins play outdoors, so their typical explosive pass plays could be hindered slightly, leading towards a more run-heavy approach on both sides.

All of these factors lead us to side with our Rithmm model here.

Closing Remarks on Dolphins vs Bills TNF Predictions

With this TNF game kicking off the 2024-25 NFL season, I think we're in store for a fantastic year, and if you follow all of Rithmm's insights and tools, you will be too.

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