Dream vs Mercury - AI Prediction

It's an interconference showdown on the WNBA court as two teams vying to improve their standings meet in Atlanta. The Phoenix Mercury travel to face the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday night. Phoenix is coming off a dominant 86-68 home win against Chicago on Sunday, where they easily covered the spread as eight-point favorites. 

On the other side, Atlanta secured a surprising 82-70 victory over Connecticut at home, winning outright as an eight-point underdog in their previous game. In the last 10 encounters between these teams, the Mercury have the upper hand with a 6-4 record, including an 88-85 win at home as 2.5-point underdogs in their only matchup this season back on May 18.

Preview of Mercury vs Dream AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Mercury Preview 

Phoenix secured their third win in four games by taking care of business against Chicago at home on Sunday. With that victory, the Mercury improved to 15-13 on the season, placing them fourth in the Western Conference, 4.5 games behind the Lynx for the top spot. 

They currently hold the sixth seed in the playoff race, 8.5 games behind the Liberty for first place. In their game against Chicago, Phoenix jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter and extended it with a 7-0 run to start the second, building a 39-19 advantage with 7:02 left in the first half. 

The Mercury maintained control, never letting the Sky get closer than seven points for the rest of the game, ultimately securing the win. Phoenix shot 45.2% from the field, including seven of 23 from beyond the arc, while holding Chicago to 35.9% shooting. Diana Taurasi led the way for the Mercury with 23 points and five assists.

Phoenix ranks third in the league in scoring offense, averaging 84.1 points per game. They are 11th in rebounding, grabbing 32.5 boards per contest, and ninth in assists, dishing out 19.8 per game. Defensively, the Mercury are ninth in the WNBA, allowing 84.9 points per game. Kahleah Copper leads the team with 23.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game this season. Britney Griner (18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds), Diana Taurasi (16.2 points, 4.5 boards), and Natasha Cloud (12 points, 4.2 rebounds, seven assists) provide strong secondary scoring options.

 Other key contributors for coach Nate Tibbetts include Monique Billings, Sophie Cunningham, Rebecca Allen, Natasha Mack, Sug Sutton, Morgan Bertsch, Mikiah Herbert-Harrigan, and Liz Dixon. The Mercury are fifth in the league in field goal percentage, shooting 44.3% as a team, and are also fifth in both three-pointers made (9.2 per game) and three-point shooting percentage (34.4%) this season. Additionally, Phoenix is tied for fourth in the WNBA in free throw percentage, converting 80.9% of their attempts.

Rebecca Allen (hamstring) has been out since July 16 and is expected to be re-evaluated in the coming weeks.

Dream Preview 

Atlanta secured their second consecutive victory by defeating Connecticut at home on Sunday, gaining some momentum heading into this matchup. The Dream improved to 9-17 on the season, placing them fifth in the Eastern Conference, 13.5 games behind the Liberty for the top spot. They currently sit ninth in the playoff race, 1.5 games behind the Sky for the final postseason spot. Against Connecticut, Atlanta led by four after the first quarter, extended their lead to as much as nine in the second quarter, and held a four-point advantage at halftime. 

Despite being up by seven after three quarters, the Dream found themselves down by five with 4:51 remaining before closing the game on a 19-2 run to secure the win. Atlanta shot 41.3% from the field, including five of 16 from beyond the arc, made 25 of 31 free throws, and limited the Sun to 35.4% shooting. Tina Charles led the Dream with a double-double, scoring 22 points and grabbing 15 rebounds.

The Dream rank 12th in the league in scoring offense, averaging 75.8 points per game this season. Atlanta is tied for 4th in the league in rebounding, pulling down 35.3 boards per game, but they are 12th in assists, averaging 18.4 per contest. Defensively, the Dream are 5th in the WNBA, allowing an average of 80.7 points per game. 

Rhyne Howard leads the team in scoring, averaging 16.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. Allisha Gray adds 15.5 points and four rebounds per contest, while Tina Charles (14 points, 8.4 rebounds) and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (9.2 points, 4.8 rebounds) provide strong secondary scoring options. Other key contributors for coach Tanisha Wright include Aerial Powers, Haley Jones, Naz Hillmon, Jordin Canada (10.7 points, 6.3 assists), Crystal Dangerfield, Nia Coffey, Lorela Cubaj, and Laeticia Amihere. 

The Dream rank 12th in field goal percentage, shooting 41.4% as a team. They are 11th in three-pointers made per game (5.3) and 10th in three-point percentage, converting 30.5% of their long-range attempts. Atlanta ranks 7th in the league in free throw percentage, shooting 77.2% from the line this season.

Aerial Powers (calf) last played on July 17 and has resumed jogging, but there is no timetable for her return. Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (hamstring) was injured in Sunday’s game against the Sun and is listed as day-to-day. Keep an eye out for updates on her status.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Mercury vs Dream AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Recent Form: 

• The Dream have been inconsistent lately but come into this game with two straight wins, including an impressive victory over the Connecticut Sun. On the other hand, the Mercury have won three of their last four games, showing strong form as they push for a better playoff position​.

Offensive and Defensive Stats:

• The Mercury have a potent offense, ranking 3rd in the league, averaging 84.1 points per game, but their defense is ranked 9th, allowing 84.9 points per game. Conversely, the Dream struggle offensively, ranking 12th with 75.8 points per game, but they are 

Head-to-Head and Matchup Trends:

• The Mercury have a slight edge in their last 10 meetings against the Dream, winning 6 out of those matchups. Phoenix also won their only meeting this season, which could give them confidence heading into this game​.

My Mercury vs Dream AI Prediction

Both teams come into this game with some momentum, as the Mercury have won three of their last four games, while the Dream have secured two straight victories. Phoenix, with its veteran roster, didn’t get much of a break during the Olympics since several key players  were in action. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been impressive since the Olympic break, defeating top teams like Seattle and Connecticut. The return of Rhyne Howard has bolstered the Dream, though they could benefit further from the presence of Cheyenne Parker-Tyus to strengthen their second unit. 

Selection: Dream +2

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