Duke vs Northwestern: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

We have a Friday night light’s showdown in the ACC vs B1G in Duke taking on Northwestern. See below how I used the Rithmm app to get my AI prediction for Duke vs Northwestern. 

Preview of Duke vs Northwestern AI Predictions

A rematch of last season when Duke took the bragging rights for that game, now Northwestern gets them at one of the most interesting home fields in College Football this year for a potential revenge game in my Duke vs Northwestern AI Prediction. Can the Wildcats spoil transfer Quarterback Maalik Murphy and the Blue Devil’s hopes of a statement start to their season? 

Duke Blue Devils Preview 

Duke walks into this game coming off a 26-3 win over Elon. Their offense shined but their defense was brighter allowing just 140 yards. Now for the “it’s just Elon” crowd, it’s understandable but they can absolutely replicate that kind of performance again on Friday night.

Duke cleaned the house staff wise, as both offensive and defensive coordinators are in their first year as well as Manny Diaz is in his first season as head coach. However, Diaz and Patke go hand in hand working quite well together as they find themselves on the same staff for the fourth time in both of their respective careers, most recently in Miami from 2016-2021 when Miami had quite literally the greatest defense it has had since 2001.

Patke is very aggressive with his schemes, he told reporters before the season, “We want to be disruptors.” and they were just that last Saturday. They had a country’s best eight sacks along with 18 total tackles for loss, the school’s most since 2007, vs Elon and one of the keys on this coming Friday will be that defensive front vs Northwestern’s offensive front. 

Onto the offensive side for the new Blue Devils, OC Jonathan Brewer, who brings a whole new version of tempo. This offense should ideally be significantly worse than it was last season but with that being said, Brewer and Sophomore QB Maalik Murphy are a match in heaven. Brewer, coming from SMU, a very up-tempo, high powered offense, who also was in Miami with Diaz back in 2021, had a nationally ranked top 15 offense in both seasons at SMU.

We saw glimpses of that style of aggressive pass play vs Elon as Murphy looked sharp going 26/40, 291 yards, with a pair of touchdowns. They did not quite run the ball as often as some would expect but getting Murphy comfortable was definitely a priority. Ultimately, the Devils main goal on Friday will aim to be “more aggressive” through the air and “more explosive.”

This plays a key role in my Duke vs Northwestern AI prediction.

Northwestern Wildcats Preview 

The Wildcats opened their rebuild season, literally, in a sweaty 13-6 win over Miami (OH). Mississippi State transfer Mike Wright went 18/30 for 178 yards, rushing for 65 with a touchdown. Last week, Gabbert, Miami (OH) QB, and Wright combined to complete just 59% of their passes with just 6 yards per attempt, that’s very bad for those who don’t know. Northwestern did manage to run on the ground very well going for 150 yards on 31 carries averaging nearly 5 yards per carry. 

The Wildcats welcomed in newly acquired OC Zach Lujan earlier this year who won back to back FCS National Titles with his alma mater in South Dakota State. Lujan is used to winning, SDSU is one of the most winningest programs in FCS history and Lujan was there for almost every historic milestone as a coach and as a player. Last season his offense ranked sixth in points per game (37.3) and total offense (449.9 yards). 

As for Northwestern’s defense, they recently had Tim McGarigle promoted to Defensive Coordinator. The defense has carried this team through thick and thin and is very good at taking the ball away from the offense, quite literally. The key to this has been their defensive front, as mentioned before they return four of their defensive linemen. On the contrary, their secondary took quite the hit losing multiple of their “stars” to the portal.

When the cats are +2 in the turnover margin, they went 5-0, the offense lost one single fumble all season last year and threw three of the eight interceptions in the first three games and they came out to be the third best team as far as turnover margin goes, now they just need to do that again. 

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Duke vs Northwestern AI Prediction:

As said before, Duke showed no impressive showing of its run game. 59 yards on 27 carries is not something to be proud of, and if you’re Northwestern and Tim McGarigle, you are drooling over that. Northwestern is returning four defensive linemen and some might say their defense as a whole is among the best in the country statistically. With turning Duke into an arguably one dimension offense, Northwestern will rely on their secondary and if we’re being completely honest, the weather, as they are within a half of a football field of Lake Michigan, it’s the only reason I’d back this Northwestern team by anywhere -2 to -3. 

Before I do any insight, I head to my Rithmm app to see what it always suggests first along with the information it tells me such as the recent ATS and total trends. To go deeper than that though, Northwestern hasn’t started 2-0 ATS/SU since 2015. Thanks to Rithmm, I’m now willing to fade that trend and back the Wildcats at -2.5 here. 

My model, as shown above has me backing them at -2.5 showing a 56.4% win probability with a 4.6% DTM. Northwestern isn’t always known for “hot starts” but this season in particular it needs a foundation of wins early, this being one of them especially after last week’s showing vs Miami (OH). I also saw my model suggested a total bet where I decided to do some more digging considering this is their temporary stadium. The stadium always plays a role in my AI Sports Picks.

Both of these teams should be significantly worse than they were last season with both having below average offenses as well, which brought me to my next pick my model suggested, which was the under at 37.5. My model has this showing at a 52% win probability with a 2.5% DTM. With both teams being heavy defensive sided in this game I love this number especially for this price that I found using Rithmm’s line shopping feature. Windy city calling for a windy game? We have to take that right? Games with wind speeds higher than 13 mph, 14.7 mph to be exact, hit at a 58% clip earning an 11.7% ROI over nearly 1,000 games.

Not to mention betting the under when game time temperatures are under 60 degrees hit at a 61% clip, this one earns about 18.6% ROI after nearly tracking for 500 games. On top of that, Rithmm’s feature of viewing trends in the last 10 games. Rithmm shows Northwestern’s record to the Over/Under is 3-7 continuing from last season along with a home Over/Under record of 2-5, and 0-3 to the Over/Under as a favorite averaging 20.4 points per game. 

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I used all of this data in my in my Duke vs Northwestern AI prediction.

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