Eagles vs Giants: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game
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There is a ton of jockeying in the standings with Week 7 upon us, and that’s even more apparent with inter-division games.
Preview of my Eagles vs. Giants Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) and the New York Giants (2-4) go head-to-head for the first time this season in this ever-important NFC match up. There isn’t a clear favorite in the NFC East and the crown is very much up for grabs so every game counts. It has been a season of frustration for both of these teams but let’s take a look at the Eagles vs Giants AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this NFC East showdown.
Philadelphia Eagles Preview
The Philadelphia Eagles’s 2023 season was a major disappointment after starting the year 10-1 before losing 5 of the next 6 games and getting bounced in the Wild Card Round. Head Coach, Nick Siriani’s seat was burning hot and there was speculation he would be fired. Instead, they brought in new Offensive and Defensive Coordinators but the results of largely remained the same.
Through Week 6, the offense is ranked 12th in DVOA with 366.8 total yards per game and 21.2 points per game. The total yards per game rank 10th in the league and they rank 18th in the NFL in points per game. However, with the addition of former Giant, Saquon Barkley, the rushing attack ranks 6th in the league with 146.2 yards rushing per game. The lack of cohesive offense could be because they were missing star receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith while also missing RT Lane Johnson due to injuries, but it’s been a slow start so far.
The defense was a big negative last year and it’s similar this year so far. The defense is ranked 26th in DVOA despite the addition of Vic Fangio as the Defensive Coordinator and multiple playmakers on the defensive line and secondary.
The Eagles are the fourth worst team in turnover differential at -6 with the defense only forcing two turnovers through five games.
In their first 5 games of the year, the Eagles are 2-3 against the spread and 1-1 as the away team.
New York Giants Preview
The New York Giants didn’t have high expectations coming into the 2024 season even though they were sticking with $40+ million quarterback, Daniel Jones, and third year head coach Brian Daboll. However, the season has started off better than most expected.
The Giants come into Week 7 with a record of 2-4 but with some promising aspects and solid building blocks.
First and foremost, the defense, ranked 17th in DVOA, has held their oppositions to just 314 yards per game which is 10th best in the league. Their opponents average 20.2 points per game which is also good for 10th in the league.
The offensive side hasn’t been as impressive. They are ranked 20th in DVOA with a yards per game of 319.3, which ranks 20th and points per game of just 16 which is good for fourth worst in the league. The offense is led by six-year quarterback Daniel Jones who has registered a 51.4 QBR this season, putting him as the 21st ranked quarterback in 2024
The bright spot on the offensive is rookie standout wide receiver, Malik Nabers, who despite missing the last two games with a concussion, still leads the team with 386 receiving yards on 35 receptions.
In their first 5 games of the year, the Giants are 3-2 against the spread and 1-1 as the home team.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Eagles vs Giants AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is Eagles -3 and 43. My first thought with this game is the Eagles are the superior team, but they are very much in flux, and they are playing at MetLife stadium as the away team. When seeing that both of these teams are not playing their best football, I am generally inclined to go with the better overall team.
Looking at the numbers and the trends of these teams, I am leaning towards betting the spread.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I created for the 2024 NFL season, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that favors an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Eagles as a favorite at -7.1. This gives a huge edge on the given spread with a 4.1 point edge.
The next model I customized for the NFL season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model also has the the Eagles as favorites, with a model spread of Eagles -5. This gives an edge of a full 2 points.
Lastly, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model favors the Eagles and has the spread at Eagles -3.9. This is also gives an edge to the Eagles but just 0.9 point edge on the given spread.
My Eagles vs Giants AI Prediction
With my own research and with all three of the models showcasing an edge on the given spread towards the Eagles, I am inclined to stick with my initial thought process. I think the Eagles lean on the running game and Saquon Barkley in his comeback to MetLife and break the game open with well timed passing attack. With that, I am taking the Eagles -3 in the Eagles vs Giants match up.
More AI Predictions for NFL
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