Fever vs Dream: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The Indiana Fever (6-10) are gearing up to face the Atlanta Dream (6-7) on Friday evening in Eastern Conference action at State Farm Arena. The Fever are riding a three-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Washington Mystics 88-81 on Wednesday.

In contrast, the Dream are coming off a 68-55 road loss to the Minnesota Lynx. The two teams met earlier this season on June 13, with the Fever emerging victorious with a 91-84 home win.

Preview of my Fever vs Dream AI Prediction

The Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream meet Friday in WNBA action at the State Farm Arena and below I have my breakdown for my Fever vs Dream AI prediction.

Indiana Fever Preview

The Indiana Fever are struggling early this season but are beginning to improve. Offensively, they are averaging 79.9 points per game with a shooting percentage of 43.2%. They are also solid from three-point range, hitting 34.1% of their attempts, and are reliable at the free-throw line with a team percentage of 78.9%.

Caitlin Clark leads the team with 16.3 points and 6.2 assists per game. However, their defense is lagging, allowing 88.4 points per game, ranking 12th in the league. The team needs to enhance their defensive play to progress further.

Atlanta Dream Preview

The Atlanta Dream have had a decent start to the season and need to keep winning to climb the Eastern Conference standings. They recently suffered a 68-55 road loss to the Minnesota Lynx. Offensively, they rank last in the WNBA, averaging 75.7 points per game with a 39.7% shooting rate.

Their three-point shooting is at 32.4%, and they hit 79.0% from the free-throw line. Tina Charles leads the team with 12.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Defensively, the Dream are strong, allowing just 79.0 points per game, ranking fourth in the league. They have been improving and look to continue this trend moving forward.

This plays a key role in my Fever vs Dream AI prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Fever vs Dream AI Prediction

Recent Form: The Indiana Fever are currently on a three-game winning streak, showing significant improvement as the season progresses. They recently defeated the Washington Mystics 88-81. Conversely, the Atlanta Dream are coming off a tough 68-55 road loss to the Minnesota Lynx.

Offensive and Defensive Stats

• The Fever are averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 43.2% from the field, including 34.1% from three-point range. However, they struggle defensively, allowing an average of 88.4 points per game.
• The Dream have one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league, averaging just 75.7 points per game with a shooting percentage of 39.7%. They are more effective on the defensive end, allowing 79.0 points per game, which ranks them fourth in the league.

Key Players

For the Fever, Caitlin Clark is a standout, averaging 16.3 points and 6.2 assists per game. Kelsey Mitchell is also a key contributor with 15.9 points per game. The Dream will be missing their leading scorer Rhyne Howard, which significantly impacts their offensive capabilities.

Betting Trends

Below are the betting trends I used for my Fever vs Dream AI prediction:

• The Fever have covered the spread in their last three games, whereas the Dream have failed to cover in three of their last four and in five of their last seven.
• Historically, the over has been a favorable bet in games involving these teams, given their scoring struggles and strong defensive play.
• Previous Matchup: In their earlier meeting this season on June 13, the Fever won 91-84 at home, covering the spread as 2.5-point underdogs.

My Fever vs Dream AI Prediction

It appears the betting market didn't initially account for Rhyne Howard's absence, opening the line at Atlanta -4. With Howard out, the Fever are now 3-point favorites. However, this seems like an overreaction. While Howard is significant, I would only adjust the value by about 3.5 points.

‍Rithmm’s AI Model projects Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite at full strength, suggesting Atlanta should be -2 without Howard. The Over/Under has stayed around 163.5, with Rithmm’s AI Model projecting 165. Despite the Fever's recent performance, this value shift seems excessive.

If you’re looking for more AI Backed WNBA picks you can check them out here.

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