The 2024 college basketball season continues as the Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in a Mountain West showdown. With both teams experiencing inconsistent performances against the spread (ATS), this matchup presents a key opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the value in the betting markets. Let's dive into our Fresno State vs Nevada predictions, picks, and best bets using insights from Rithmm’s AI-powered model.

Fresno State vs Nevada Prediction Preview

Fresno State enters this game with a mixed performance record, covering the spread in three of their last five games. However, their road struggles remain a concern, as they are just 1-2 ATS away from home. On the other hand, Nevada has been inconsistent as well, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games and struggling to cover the spread at home.

While Fresno State has proven to be more effective as an underdog, Nevada’s issues covering at home leave questions about their ability to dominate this game. With both teams showing some volatility, this game could come down to how well Fresno State can keep things competitive.

Who is Favored to Win Fresno State vs Nevada?

Nevada enters this matchup as the clear favorite, but Fresno State has the chance to cover as a +13.5 underdog (-121). The spread indicates a strong expectation that Nevada will control the game, but Rithmm’s model suggests Fresno State may be able to keep it within single digits.

Fresno State vs Nevada Betting Trends

Before finalizing our Fresno State vs Nevada picks, let's take a look at how both teams have performed against the spread and in recent games.

Fresno State ATS Trends

• Overall ATS Record: 3-2 in their last five games
• Away ATS Record: 1-2 ATS in their last three road games
• Underdog ATS Record: 3-2 ATS when playing as an underdog

Nevada ATS Trends

• Overall ATS Record: 1-4 ATS in their last five games
• Home ATS Record: 1-2 ATS at home over their last three
• Favorite ATS Record: 1-1 when favored

While Nevada has struggled to cover the spread, Fresno State has been slightly more reliable, particularly when playing as an underdog.

How Many Times Has Fresno State Beaten Nevada?

Fresno State and Nevada have faced off multiple times in recent years, with Nevada historically having the upper hand. However, Fresno State’s ability to cover the spread as an underdog suggests they could be competitive in this game.

Model Used for My Fresno State vs Nevada Best Bet Prediction

Using Rithmm’s pre-built NCAAM model, we analyze key trends, team stats, and historical performance to determine the best bets for this matchup.

What Chance Does Fresno State Have of Covering vs Nevada?

According to Rithmm’s model:

• Fresno State is projected at +9.9, meaning the current +13.5 spread (-121) offers value on the Bulldogs.
• 61.6% probability of Fresno State covering the spread based on model insights.

My Pick for Fresno State vs Nevada

After reviewing the Fresno State vs Nevada predictions, betting trends, and Rithmm's model insights, my best bet is on Fresno State covering the spread at +13.5. Nevada has struggled to cover in recent games, and Fresno State has been more reliable as an underdog.

Best Bet: Fresno State +13.5 (-121)

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