Georgia vs Alabama: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

Welcome to Week 5 of college football as two of the top powerhouse teams in the nation square off in an early season showdown between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide. This is the 2nd week in a row Rithmm has asked me to write about the top game of the week and, as I said last week, you don't make friends when you write about college football.

This will be the 74th meeting of these two SEC titans as Georgia travels into Bryant-Denny Stadium for the first time since 2020 to take on Alabama in a prime-time game.

Enough hype? Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide.

Preview of Georgia vs Alabama AI Prediction

Date: Saturday September 28th

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

How to Watch: ABC

Surface: Natural Grass

Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

The #4 Crimson Tide return home to Tuscaloosa feeling pretty good about their complete dismantling of the Wisconsin Badgers last week 42 - 10 in Camp Randall. And while Alabama has looked sluggish at times this season, last week they looked like the Alabama of old as they continued to run up points. The Tide currently average 49 points per game with 21 touchdowns in three games.

Starting Quarterback Jalen Milroe has been solid all season throwing for 590 yards and 8 touchdowns with no interceptions while also rushing for 156 yards on 36 carries with 6 more touchdowns. His front line has given him adequate protection allowing 5 sacks for the year, but only one last week against Wisconsin where Milroe was 12 of 17 for 196 yards with 3 touchdowns.

Milroe has been connecting primarily with wideout Ryan Williams who has 10 catches for 285 yards this season with 4 touchdowns including an 84 yard reception against Western Kentucky in week one and Wide Receiver Germie Bernard who has 8 receptions for 125 yards and one touchdown. Milroe has been spreading the ball around as well, having hit at least six different players with three or more catches.

The offense isn't without a running game either as Jam Miller has gone 265 yards on 29 carries and three touchdowns, averaging 9.1 yards per carry and Justin Haynes with 165 rushing yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns including an 85 yard scamper against Western Kentucky as well. This offense has also converted 52.5% of their 3rd down plays going 21 of 40.

Defensively the Tide are holding up their end of the bargain as they've only allowed 26 total points over three games behind Jihaad Campbell. The Junior Linebacker has 18 solo tackles on the season and, along with Linebacker Deontae Lawson and his 10 tackles, make up a nice corp in the middle while Tim Keenan III holds down the line with his six tackles and 1.5 sacks. Opponents are only converting 16.3% of their third down plays against this Bama defense going 8 for 49.

Alabama is currently ranked 4th in the AP Top 25 as well as 2nd in the nation in the ESPN College Football Power Index for the 2024 season.

Georgia Bulldogs Preview

The #2 Bulldogs will take their 3 - 0 record and run headlong into Tuscaloosa on Saturday to face the Tide. Georgia is coming off of a scare 2 weeks ago after barely holding on to beat a scrappy Kentucky team 13 - 12. The Bulldogs will have used that week of rest to regroup and try to find the magic elixir to beating this Alabama team, and Kirby Smart's track record when he has a week or more to prepare has netted him a 16 - 2 record in the subsequent game, averaging 36.4 points per game and only allowing an average 19.4 points and Georgia has not lost one of these games since 2018 against Texas.

The Bulldogs will be leaning on Quarterback Carson Beck who has thrown for 680 yards on 56 of 82 passing with seven touchdowns and no interceptions and, while Beck isn't the most mobile Quarterback on the field, he has run 11 times for 55 yards, so he does have some escape abilities when needed though he's been getting plenty of help up front as he's only been sacked once this season.

Beck will be throwing to Wide Receiver Dominic Lovett who has 12 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown and wideout Arian Smith with his 11 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Both receivers are averaging 12.9 yards per catch. Like Milroe, Beck spreads the ball around having eight different receivers with 3 or more catches including Tight End Lawson Luckie who has 80 yards on 4 catches for an average of 20 yards per catch and one touchdown.

Georgia likes its running game led by Junior Trevor Etienne who has 24 carries for 157 yards on the season including a 45 yard run in week one against Tennessee Tech. Etienne is joined by Running Back Nate Frazier who has 113 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown.

Defensively the Bulldogs are led by Linebacker CJ Allen who has 15 total tackles on the season and fellow Linebacker Raylen Wilson with 12 total tackles and 1.5 sacks for 29 yards. The Georgia defense is allowing only 6 points per game on average and is the only team to not allow a touchdown yet this season and this Georgia defense travels well allowing only 18.2 points per game last season. But they will have to scheme and play at their very best to stop this potent Alabama offense at home.

Georgia is currently ranked #2 in the AP Top 25 as well as 4th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for the 2024 season.

How I use Models for Bulldogs vs Crimson Tide AI Prediction

This is going to be an extremely tough game for Georgia. They're traveling to Alabama and playing in a hostile environment after coming off of a near loss to Kentucky which dropped them down to #2 on the season where Georgia has dominated the number one spot with 39 appearances there since 2021.

Conversely, this is going to be Alabama's first true test of the SEC this season. A big win over Wisconsin shouldn't be discounted, but it's not Georgia, and let's not forget that win over USF was a tad misleading as that game was 14 - 13 going into the fourth quarter.

I had to lean heavily into my Rithmm models here.

I like Georgia. I think overall they are the better team and I think the offense will give Alabama everything they can handle plus the kitchen sink. But this game is in Alabama, it's against their arch rival Georgia, it will be loud and Alabama is going to be as jacked up for this game more than they've been in a while.

It's still early in the week, the line is still Alabama +2.5 and the money is still coming in heavier on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. But when you look at that moneyline, you'll see that the money is much heavier on the Tide to win this game outright (64%) and, depending on the book, has moved towards Alabama. Not much, and not every book, but I'm going to take the approach of following the money and catching Alabama at plus money today. This will continue to tighten up over the week and may land close to a pick'em by Friday.

I'm taking Alabama +115 on the moneyline.

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