Georgia vs Texas: AI Predictions - College Football

The Texas Longhorns will take a stab at their first SEC Championship as they head to the Peach state to take on the Georgia Bulldogs for the second time this season.

Let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for Georgia vs Texas.

Preview of Georgia vs Texas AI Prediction

• Date: Saturday December 7
• Time: 4:00 PM ET
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• Surface: FieldTurf
• How to Watch: ABC

Georgia Preview

The Bulldogs ended their regular season on a three game winning streak after their surprising loss to Ole Miss back in early November. The Dogs ended their regular season at 10 - 2 and finished with a 6 - 2 record in the SEC.

Last week Georgia took 8 overtimes to finally put away the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets when Nate Frasier put the ball in the end zone on a 3-yard carry to lock up an SEC Championship matchup with the Longhorns and a place in the College Football Playoffs.

“The overtime was epic...What a great game.” said Kirby Smart after the win. The Dog were down 17 - 0 at half and were being manhandled by Georgia Tech. It took some great adjustments at halftime by Smart and his staff and some backbone by the Georgia team to pull this one out.

Quarterback Carson Beck had five touchdowns on the day, including two in overtime, and went 28 of 43 for 297 yards. Beck put together a fantastic eight play 75-yard drive with just over five minutes remaining to give Georgia a chance as he hit Dominic Lovett for a 17-yard touchdown pass with 3:39 remaining in the game.

Defensively the Bulldogs gave up 563 yards of offense to the Yellow Jackets with 260 of those being on the ground. This Georgia defense is ranked 35th in the nation giving up 332.1 yards per game and 39 touchdowns on the season. They will have to come together a little more to stop this potent Texas offense a second time this season.

Georgia is ranked 5th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Texas Preview

The Longhorns come into this game with an 11 - 1 record in their first season in the SEC. They've been on a five-game winning streak and lost only one game six weeks ago against this very Georgia team.

The last meeting saw the Texas offense have four turnovers, their defense give up 283 total yards, 108 of those on the ground, and saw Georgia's Trevor Etienne run for three touchdowns.

But that was six weeks ago and this Texas team has all but dominated since. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has thrown for 2,307 yards on the season with 24 touchdowns against only seven interceptions, though he's been sacked 16 times. Last week against Texas A&M, Ewers was 17 of 28 for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Texas has been playing sound defense and are ranked third in the nation in total defense giving up 247.2 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. Last week the Longhorn defense gave up 146 yards passing and 102 yards on the ground. They will need to impose their will on the Bulldogs offense while doing their best to quiet what is going to be a very loud and partisan crowd in Atlanta.

Texas is ranked 1st in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Georgia vs Texas AI Prediction

This isn't going to be an easy game for the Longhorns. In spite of Georgia not being the powerhouse they were for the previous two years, they are still a force to be reckoned with and should be treated as such. Texas is coming into a de facto home-game for the Bulldogs and that building will be loud and full of Georgia fans wanting to spank the Horns back to Texas.

But as you can see above, my Rithmm models don't necessarily support this. Typically I'd be looking at taking the spread or possibly the total, but the moneyline jumped out at me for its confidence and the fact that it lined up with my other metrics.

At the time of this writing, the books are holding strong with a 78% bet split for Texas to win this outright and with a line that opened at -125, it has only moved up and is now hanging strong at -143. This model also has a 60.5% win probability and is quite confident in the outcome.

I like this game. I like how Texas has handled themselves and, I have to say, I'm not overly impressed with the way Georgia played last week. They took a beating and while it was a moral victory, I'm not so sure they actually won that game as much as they just outlasted Tech.

I'll be taking Texas on the moneyline. Shop around, I got it at -140.

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