Giants vs Cowboys: NFL Predictions - TNF

Last week on TNF, the New England Patriots got walloped by the New York Jets, 24-3

This week, we get another divisional matchup, this time in the NFC East, between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. Things have flipped, with the Cowboys reeling off two bad losses while the Giants just beat the Browns and have to be feeling great.

We'll be breaking down the game preview, our Rithmm model for this matchup, and my prediction for this game, so let's get into our Cowboys vs Giants TNF Predictions for Week 4.

Cowboys @ Giants TNF Preview

It feels weird to say this, but I'm actually more confident in the Giants right now than I am the Cowboys?

So far this season, the Cowboys have regressed heavily, especially on defense. Nothing truly notable in their passing defense, but the run defense is awfully bad. They currently rank:

• Worst in rushing yards allowed
• Third-worst in explosive rushes allowed (10+ yards)
• Worst in rushing yards per carry
• Worst in rushing DVOA
• Third-worst in rush EPA/play

That's not good, folks! Losing DaRon Bland has been tough on this secondary as well, so the Cowboys' focus right now has to be getting things right on the defensive side of the football.

The Giants, on the other hand, are looking somewhat okay right now! One thing I've noticed is how well their offensive line is playing after being a much-maligned unit in 2023. They currently rank 4th in pass blocking and 6th in run blocking, so that's a major step up for them.

On the defensive side of the ball, they're coming off a game against the Browns where they had eight sacks, which is terrific obviously. It is notable that they'll be without two of their starting defensive backs in this game, so a possible bounce back for CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott.

That feeds right into my Rithmm custom sports betting model that I built for this game.

Cowboys @ Giants Thursday Night Football Rithmm Model

Building NFL models using Rithmm's technology is super easy! All you need to do is go into the Rithmm website or app, click on the models tab under NFL, and either click 'Build a Model For Me' or 'Personalize a Model'. The first option will auto-generate a model for you using our AI simulations and backtesting to determine what works.

After clicking 'Personalize a Model', you can build your model, either by utilizing the pre-made factors, or if you have Rithmm Premium, you can build your own custom factors using any variety of our numerous research analytics. Once that model has finishing its "training" and you name it, you're ready to track some NFL bets!

For a complete look, check out how to build a Rithmm NFL prediction model.

This is a model that I put together specifically to target totals in games. As you can see, the backtesting is immensely accurate from a betting perspective when it comes to game totals, with a near-70% success rating.

Cowboys @ Giants TNF Game Prediction

It’s time to see my game prediction for Week 4 TNF. We’re going to go into my prediction that is based on my custom Rithmm model, and why I think it's a good choice.

If you want to see the full predictions for this game, including our recommended player props, make sure you sign up for your FREE seven-day trial of Rithmm by clicking at the bottom of the page!

TNF Game Prediction for Cowboys @ Giants

Pick: Over 45

Win Probability: 55.6%%

DTM: 5.5%

This total has been bet up, understandably. What would usually be a projected blowout win by the Cowboys thanks to a stout defense and an overwhelming passing attack has definitely changed to a matchup that could be decided in the trenches, thanks to issues on the Cowboys' defensive side as well as a breakout first month for Giants' star rookie WR Malik Nabers.

I think the X-factor in this game is Nabers, because he has been the engine that makes this Giants' offense move. He has an outlandish 38% target share through three games, the second-highest number in the NFL right now, and has delivered, with 30 targets in his last two games and three touchdowns.

I simply do not think that the Cowboys can contain him, and I think RB Devin Singletary, who's having a quietly solid start as well, will see enough volume to get this Giants' offense moving as well.

On the other side of things, this Cowboys' passing attack is due for a bounce-back game. Lamb was noticeably annoyed on the sidelines last week as he and Prescott were not on the same page, and I think that that's something this offense will look to emphasize. Lamb has averaged 90 yards agame against the Giants in his career and it's hard to see him staying out of the endzone.

All in all, there is sneaky potential for scoring here. I like the over.

Closing Remarks on Giants vs Cowboys TNF Predictions

I think we're in store for a fantastic year, and if you follow all of Rithmm's insights and tools, you will be too.

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