The 2025 National Championship game features the Florida Gators taking on the Houston Cougars in a closely matched showdown. With both teams having battled their way through a competitive March Madness bracket, this title game is shaping up to be a grind-it-out battle.

In this article, I'll break down the latest Florida vs Houston predictions using Rithmm’s AI-powered model, recent betting trends, and the best odds across top sportsbooks.

Preview of Florida vs Houston Prediction

The Florida Gators have been inconsistent against the spread, covering in just two of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars are coming in hotter, going 3-2 ATS and showing toughness in the underdog role.

Rithmm’s AI model projects a narrow outcome with Florida edging out Houston 70.6 to 69.8. With the line sitting at Houston +1.5, the model’s tight projection supports the Cougars covering in a low-margin loss or even pulling off the upset.

If you're evaluating Florida vs Houston picks, the edge leans toward Houston +1.5 with just enough margin to justify a play.

Who is Favored to Win Florida vs Houston?

Florida is the slight betting favorite heading into this matchup, but Rithmm’s model suggests this is essentially a coin-flip game. The predictive margin of 0.8 points in Florida’s favor makes the Florida vs Houston odds far tighter than sportsbooks imply.

With a 54.3% win probability for Houston +1.5 at -116 odds, the model sees just enough value on the Cougars to pull the trigger.

Florida vs Houston History and Betting Trends

• Florida is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
• Florida is 2-3 ATS as a favorite
• Florida is 1-0 ATS away from home
• Houston is 3-2 ATS in their last 5
• Houston is 2-2 ATS at home
• Houston is 1-0 ATS as an underdog

When assessing Florida vs Houston best bets, it’s notable that Florida has struggled as a favorite, while Houston has embraced the underdog role—particularly in high-pressure games like this one.

Model Used for Florida vs Houston Best Bets

According to Rithmm’s NCAAM model:

Florida 70.6 – Houston 69.8

While the model leans slightly toward Florida on the scoreboard, it still favors Houston +1.5 as the best bet, with a 54.3% projected cover probability.

If you’re leaning into Florida vs Houston picks, Houston offers more value as the side getting the points in what’s expected to be a toss-up.

What Chance Does Houston Have of Beating Florida?

Houston has been resilient throughout the tournament and has matched up well in physical games. The Cougars' ability to keep games close and capitalize on late-game situations gives them a strong shot at not only covering, but winning outright.

Their 3-2 ATS run and perfect 1-0 record as an underdog show they’ve been reliable when expectations are low.

My Pick for Florida vs Houston

After weighing the Florida vs Houston predictions, the Cougars stand out as the better bet. In a tight national championship game, taking the points is the sharp move.

Best Bet: Houston +1.5 (-116)

Best Odds for Florida vs Houston

Line shopping is essential in a close title matchup like this. Here are the Florida vs Houston best odds for backing the Cougars +1.5:

• PointsBet: +1.5 (-111) ✅ Best odds
• MGM: +1.5 (-115)
• FanDuel: +1.5 (-118)
• Consensus: +1.5 (-116)

To get the most value, take Houston +1.5 (-111) at PointsBet while it’s still available.

Explore More Predictions Like Houston vs Florida

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