Game: Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies | Today, 8:00 PM ET
Odds: -120
There's a pattern in the data that only shows up when you zoom out past the individual game and look at when games are played.
On Fridays this season, Rithmm's models have been flagging rebounds + assists unders at a rate that's hard to ignore. The record: 15-3. An 83.3% win rate. A 44.9% ROI. Tonight, that pattern is pointing directly at Jakob Poeltl.
Rithmm's model projects Poeltl to finish with 8.3 combined rebounds and assists. The line is set at 10.5.
That's a 2.2-unit gap between the model's projection and the sportsbook line. When that kind of separation shows up alongside a well-established Friday pattern, the signal is worth paying attention to.
Here's the full breakdown:
An 11.6% DTM is significant. It means the model sees a meaningful gap between what the data projects and what the sportsbook has priced in. Combined with a 7/10 recent hit rate and the Friday pattern behind it, the case here is layered and consistent.
Context shapes performance. Load management, rest scheduling, pace of play, opponent preparation — these factors don't distribute evenly across the week. Rithmm's models pick up on when those contextual inputs cluster around specific days and surface patterns that wouldn't be visible looking at any single game.
The rebounds + assists under on Fridays is one of those patterns. At 15-3 this season, it has been one of the most reliable signals in the system.
Tonight, the Toronto Raptors are on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. Poeltl is a high-floor big man who typically puts up steady numbers, but the model isn't projecting a big combined stat night. The 8.3 projection reflects that clearly, and the line at 10.5 gives plenty of cushion.
Jakob Poeltl UNDER 10.5 Rebs + Asts. Tonight, 8:00 PM ET.
The model projects 8.3. The Friday pattern is 15-3. The edge is +11.6%. The data is pointing in one direction.
Want to see every pattern Rithmm's models are flagging tonight? Start your free 7-day trial and see what the data sees.
