Jets vs Patriots: NFL Predictions - TNF

Last week on TNF, the Miami Dolphins were defeated at home by the Buffalo Bills, 31-10.

This week, it's another AFC East battle, as the New York Jets and the New England Patriots will matchup against each other for the first time this season. The Patriots have owned this matchup in recent years, winning 15 of the last 16 games. That one loss, however, came in their most recent matchup, so who knows?

We'll be breaking down the game preview, our Rithmm model for this matchup, and my prediction for this game, so let's get into our Jets vs Patriots TNF Predictions for Week 3.

Jets vs Patriots TNF Preview

Like last week's game, these two squads are longtime division rivals and know the other's playstyle well at this point. That should make for some interesting motivations.

The Patriots are coming off of a loss to the Seahawks in which they were in the game till the very end, so they've come out strong in the post-Mac Jones era. Jacoby Brissett is still the starter, but has continued to take a lot of hits to start the season, so might this finally be the week that we see Drake Maye for the first time?

Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker are the flashy new names drafted this year for New England, but neither has made an impact quite yet, and with the Jets' secondary featuring two of the best in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, might we see more of Hunter Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson?

On the Jets' side, Aaron Rodgers has finally played in regular season games, but still looks like he's getting readjusted after his Achilles reconstruction last season. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are the engines that makes this offense go, with both starting the year off solidly.

The Jets need to get off to a good start here against their division rivals if they want to kee chase with the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East, so this game will be agreat test of where they are right now.

That feeds right into my Rithmm custom sports betting model that I built for this game.

Jets vs Patriots Thursday Night Football Rithmm Model

Building NFL models using Rithmm's technology is super easy! All you need to do is go into the Rithmm website or app, click on the models tab under NFL, and either click 'Build a Model For Me' or 'Personalize a Model'. The first option will auto-generate a model for you using our AI simulations and backtesting to determine what works.

After clicking 'Personalize a Model', you can build your model, either by utilizing the pre-made factors, or if you have Rithmm Premium, you can build your own custom factors using any variety of our numerous research analytics. Once that model has finishing its "training" and you name it, you're ready to track some NFL bets!

For a complete look, check out how to build a Rithmm NFL prediction model.

This is a model that I put together specifically to target totals in games. As you can see, the backtesting is immensely accurate from a betting perspective when it comes to game totals, with a near-70% success rating.

Emphasizing passing with two teams like this that have been very run-heavy is interesting to me, because I think whichever team is able to establish a consistent passing game in this one will take the W.

Jets vs Patriots TNF Game Prediction

It’s time to see my game prediction for Week 3 TNF. We’re going to go into my prediction that is based on my custom Rithmm model, and why I think it's a good choice.

If you want to see the full predictions for this game, including our recommended player props, make sure you sign up for your FREE seven-day trial of Rithmm by clicking at the bottom of the page!

TNF Game Prediction for Jets vs Patriots

Pick: Patriots +6.5

Win Probability: 63.1%

DTM: 19.9%

The Patriots in the post-Tom Brady (and now the post-Bill Belichick) era have been hard to get a read on. They're conspicuously run-heavy the majority of the time, but have maintained a solid yet unspectacular passing game that always seems to keep them in games.

Jerod Mayo has yet to really make a mark with only two games coached, but people say he is emblematic of the way Belichick ran things at time, and that includes wanting to take away key pieces of the opposing team's game plan, and he should definitely look to do that in this game, starting with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

The Patriots have only allowed 3.3 yards per carry so far this season to Zach Charbonnet and the combo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown, so they will face their first real test in Hall. The third-year back has done most of his work through the air, and should be a key piece for New England to stop.

The key matchup that I'm looking at this week is Wilson vs Pats CB Christian Gonzalez, who is having another solid start to his season, holding DK Metcalf under 30 yards on 3 catches last week when he was covering him after holding Ja'Marr Chase to a similar number in Week 1. If Gonzalez is able to keep Wilson in check and make this Jets' offense one-dimensional, it could be tough for Hall to do much damage.

I also think Rhamondre Stevenson will have a very solid game in this one against a Jets' run defense that's been gashed over the first games of the year, so give me the Patriots spread in this game, because I think it is way too big of a number.

Closing Remarks on Jets vs Patriots TNF Predictions

I think we're in store for a fantastic year, and if you follow all of Rithmm's insights and tools, you will be too.

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