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John Deere Classic Round 3 Picks
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It's been an action-packed 36 holes so far of the 2024 John Deere Classic. As usual, there are plenty of fireworks and lots of players are finding their strides and going low, and to prove it, we have a two players atop the leaderboard at 14 under par: Aaron Rai and C.T. Pan.
With 17 total players within three shots of the lead heading into the weekend, there's bound to be even more fireworks than there were on Thursday night, so let's break down some best bets for Round 3.
Following every round, we’ll be going through my favorite AI golf picks for the following round, as well as the Rithmm-backed AI Caddie hole score picks I’m rolling with. Let’s get into Round 3!
All Odds are found on DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
John Deere Classic Round 3 AI Caddie Pick
Zach Johnson to Birdie or Better Hole 1 (+245)
Zach Johnson has been in the news plenty over the last year, and ithasn't really been good. He was caught on camera at the WM Phoenix Open in February yelling expletives at fans, and of course his performance as the United States team captain at the Ryder Cup in 2023 was not great.
Time to get back on the horse though for the wily veteran, and starting off his weekend at the JDC with a birdie is a great way to do it. Johnson has parred this hole both days, but our Rithmm AI Caddie does give a 34% chance that he birdies this hole, much better than the 28% implied odds that +245 gives him.
I think the first hole could play incredibly easy in Round 3. The pin location is directly in the front of the green, and the way it is cut sets up perfectly for Johnson's patented draw shot shape.
Look for players to take advantage here with early birdies, this should be one of the easiest holes on the course today.
John Deere Classic Round 3 Best Bet
Matchup Play: Davis Thompson > Denny McCarthy (-115)
Both Thompson and McCarthy are playing very well this week. They each sit at 12 under par currently, two shots behind the leaders and in perfect position to make a charge up the leaderboard on Moving Day.
However, I'm more confident in Thompson this week. He wasn't on my outright betting card because the price was too expensive, but Thompson is one of the better players this year on Saturdays. He holds a 68.8 Round 3 Scoring Average, and that ranks 17th among the PGA Tour this season.
McCarthy, on the other hand, ranks 81st with an average of 69.9 on Moving Day, and I wonder if he can continue his scoring this week. Despite the two both sitting at 12 under, Thompson's game has been much more consistent.
Denny has been struggling with his irons and ballstriking a bit, and has been carrying himself with the putter. If that drops off though, he could be in trouble, because across the first two rounds, he has only gained 0.8 strokes on approach and just over a stroke ballstriking. Thompson has gained 2 strokes on approach and over 4.7 strokes ballstriking, clearly setting himself apart here.
You can never count McCarthy truly out because he is the best putter on the Tour currently, but I'd be more comfortable taking Thompson here.
Closing Remarks on John Deere Classic Round 3 Best Bets
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Useful Resources for betting on the John Deere Classic 2024
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