Lynx vs Liberty: AI Predictions from Custom WNBA Models

The Minnesota Lynx (14-4) are gearing up to face the New York Liberty (16-3) in a non-conference matchup at the Barclays Center on Tuesday evening. The Lynx recently secured a 70-62 road victory against the Chicago Sky on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Liberty triumphed over the Atlanta Dream at home, winning 81-75 on Sunday.

This game marks the second of three meetings between the teams, with the Lynx having won the first encounter by 17 points.

Preview of my Lynx vs Liberty AI Prediction

The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty meet Tuesday in WNBA action at the Barclays Center. Our AI Sport Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Minnesota Lynx have won eight of their last nine games and now lead the Western Conference by two games over the Seattle Storm, ranking third overall in the league. Despite their conference lead, the Lynx still trail the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun in the overall standings. In their most recent game, the Lynx defeated the Chicago Sky, with Kayla McBride contributing 16 points.

McBride, a 5'11" guard, averages 15.8 points per game (PPG) for the Lynx. She has scored in double figures in each of her last three games and also contributes 3.1 rebounds per game (RPG) and 3.8 assists per game (APG). She is the team's top shooter, making 3.1 three-pointers per game. The team's leading scorer, Napheesa Collier, is a 6'1" forward averaging 20.9 PPG and a team-high 10.4 RPG. Collier is also their top defensive player on the perimeter, leading the team with 2.3 steals per game and recording double-doubles in three of her last four games. Alanna Smith, a 6'4" forward, is the only other player averaging double figures, with 12.1 PPG.

The Lynx rank third in the league in scoring, averaging 83.9 PPG, and their defense is second-best, allowing just 74.3 PPG. They heavily rely on outside shooting, making the second-most three-pointers in the league at 9.8 per game and leading the league in three-point shooting percentage at 39.2%. This plays a key role in my Lynx vs Liberty AI prediction.

New York Liberty Preview

The New York Liberty have been performing exceptionally well in the early part of the season and need to maintain their momentum to secure the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off a strong 81-75 home victory against the Atlanta Dream. The Liberty boast the second-best offense in the WNBA, averaging 87.7 points per game and shooting 45.9% as a team. They also shoot 34.3% from three-point range and 82.5% from the free-throw line.

Forward Breanna Stewart has been a standout, averaging 19.8 points and 2.2 steals per game, helping the Liberty continue their dominance. Defensively, the Liberty are equally impressive, ranking third in the league by allowing just 78.2 points per game. As one of the most complete teams in the sport, the Liberty need to continue their strong performance to stay at the top.

All of this data is included in my Lynx vs Liberty AI prediction.

How I Use Rithmm Models for Lynx vs Liberty AI Prediction

When looking at my Rithmm model, I see that Rithmm predicts the Lynx to lose by +1.5. This has a 66.6% win probability. If Rithmm predicts that the Lynx are going to lose by +1.5 and the line for the game is set at Liberty -5 than I’m going to have to go with the Lynx plus the points in this contest.

With Rithmm’s AI sports betting model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snapshot of what I pulled for today’s game.

Minnesota Lynx Trends:

• Recent Form: The Lynx have won eight of their last nine games, demonstrating strong current form.
• Offense and Defense: They are third in the league in scoring (83.9 PPG) and second in defense, allowing only 74.3 PPG.

Key Players:

• Napheesa Collier: Averaging 20.9 PPG and 10.4 RPG, and leading the team with 2.3 steals per game.
• Kayla McBride: Consistent scoring with 15.8 PPG and strong outside shooting (3.1 made threes per game).
• Shooting: The Lynx are highly reliant on the outside shot, making the second-most threes in the league (9.8 per game) and leading in three-point shooting percentage (39.2%).

New York Liberty Trends:

• Recent Form: The Liberty have been playing well, recently securing an 81-75 win against the Atlanta Dream.
• Offense and Defense: They have the second-best offense in the WNBA, averaging 87.7 PPG and shooting 45.9% as a team. Defensively, they are third in the league, allowing 78.2 PPG.

Key Players:

• Breanna Stewart: Leading the team with 19.8 PPG and 2.2 steals per game.
• Shooting: The Liberty shoot 34.3% from three-point range and 82.5% from the free-throw line.

Head-to-Head:

• Previous Meeting: The Lynx won the first game against the Liberty by 17 points, giving them confidence going into this matchup.

Against the Spread (ATS):

• The Lynx have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.

• They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Total Points (Over/Under):

• The total has gone under in 4 of the Lynx's last 5 games.
• The total has gone under in 5 of the Lynx's last 7 games on the road.

Head-to-Head:

• The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Liberty.
• The total has gone over in 6 of the last 9 meetings between the Lynx and the Liberty.

Against the Spread (ATS):

• The Liberty have covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 games.
• They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Total Points (Over/Under):

• The total has gone over in 5 of the Liberty's last 7 games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the Liberty's last 5 home games.

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My Lynx vs Liberty AI Prediction

In a rematch of the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty will face off again on Tuesday. The Liberty are favored by 6 points, with an Over/Under set at 165. Our Model projects the Liberty at -3.5 with a total of 161.

These teams are among the best in the WNBA, showcasing their dominance with similar strengths. The Liberty lead the league with a +12.3 net rating, closely followed by the Lynx, who hold a +11.6 net rating. Examining their against-the-spread (ATS) records, Minnesota stands out with a 12-4 ATS record, while New York is 8-11 ATS.

Recently, there’s been a notable difference in their defensive performances: the Lynx have allowed just 74.5 points per game over their last four games, whereas the Liberty have given up 87.2 points per game in their last five contests. Go with the Minnesota Lynx to cover the spread on the road in this game here.

Selection: LYNX +6.5

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Best of luck everybody!