Mercury vs Wings: AI Predictions and WNBA Bet Picks

This evening the Phoenix Mercury will travel to Dallas to take on the Wings in the only WNBA match-up on the slate. See how I used Rithmm to create custom sports betting models to get to my AI prediction for the Mercury vs Wings.

After splitting their previous two meetings, the 4th place Phoenix Mercury (9 - 10) attempt to take the rubber match in the series against the Dallas Wings (4 - 15). Both teams will be coming off of a day's rest and the Mercury, after losing to the Sun on Sunday, have lost three of their last five. Dallas, who have struggled all season, have lost two in a row and four of their last five.

Preview of Mercury at Wings AI Prediction

The Phoenix Mercury and the Dallas Wings meet Wednesday at College Park Center in Arlington, TX at 8:00 PM EDT. The game can be seen locally on Bally's Sports Southwest Extra, Arizona's Family Sports and Mercury live as well as WNBA League Pass.

Phoenix Mercury Preview

The Mercury, led by Forward Kahleah Copper, who is third in the league in points per game and veteran Guard Diana Taurasi who averages 4.7 boards per game, look to break out of their slump by taking on the struggling Wings.

Phoenix are 6th overall in the league in the standings and hold a game and a half lead over Atlanta coming into tonight's match. While the Mercury have allowed the 2nd fewest opponent points in the paint per game this season, they struggled to put up much of a fight in Monday's game with the Connecticut Sun, losing at home 83 - 72.

Center Brittney Griner led the charge with 21 points in 33 minutes along with Copper who also put in 21 points and 6 rebounds. Even the play of Natasha Cloud and her 18 points with 10 assists wasn't enough to hold off Sun guard Brionna Jones and her 18 point, 7 rebound game.

The Mercury rank 5th in the league in PPG (81.8), 4th in the league in blocks per game (4.7) and 5th in 3 pointers made (172). They will need to bring all and more to get past this Wings team as they've struggled defensively to keep the Wings offense in check. In their previous two meetings the Mercury have given up 90 and 107 points respectively.

Dallas Wings Preview

The Wings will be led by 2-time All-Star Arike Ogunbowale and her 23.7 points per game. The 5 '8 "guard also leads the league in three pointers made while showing some defensive skills, leading the league in steals per game with 2.8.

Dallas has lost two in a row and were soundly outplayed on Monday, losing to Seattle 95 - 71. Overall, the Wings have lost an amazing 13 of their last 14 games, struggling mostly with injuries and not enough fire power and it's not hard to see how they are tied for the worst record in the league. Dallas is also 11th in defensive rating being slightly ahead of the Indiana Fever and they give up an average of 88.1 points per game.

Let's see how this Mercury vs Wings AI Prediction came together for me.

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Mercury vs Wings AI Prediction

I tend to focus mostly on totals for my AI WNBA picks and Rithmm has been my go-to tool for getting the best information to round out my decision making. As a total’s bettor, I first look at the Rithmm app to see if any of the day's games have agreement. Once I find the right game, I choose the model that best suits that specific game. In the case of the Mercury vs Wings, we see the under has agreement with a 57.5% win rate when back tested.

And as you can see below in my Rithmm AI Custom Betting Models, this under shows promise:

With the Mercury averaging 81.8 points per game vs the Wings average of 79.8 points per game, coupled with the fact that the Wings give up 4 more points per game than the Mercury, these numbers put us right in the target area for this line going under 170.5.

I then look at the money to see how the pros see the game and, when we look at the money that has been placed on this game, we can see that there is significant money on the over, showing a surprising amount of sharp money there. Conversely, the Joe's seem to be on this under solidly, which is a bit of a departure from the norm as Joe's tend to love the over.

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings AI Prediction

I trust the modeling for this game and feel that both teams are comfortable putting up 80 points each, but the Wings have only put up 80 or more points in 4 of their last 10 games, and in 2 of those 10 games, they didn't crack 70.

So tonight I'll be taking the Under at 170.5.

Make your own picks with your free Rithmm trial

All models are completely customizable, and while I prefer to let the app build two of the models for me while I add in one of my own to round out the Rithmm AI Picks, you can choose your own models by signing in to the Rithmm app. The sports betting AI models analyze player stats, historical data and more to provide you with another tool in your betting toolbox.

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