The Miami Marlins head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in a May 14 NL matchup. Let’s take a look at my Marlins vs Cubs prediction and what the data says about the best bet for tonight’s game.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET at Wrigley Field. The Cubs enter this contest as moderate home favorites despite injury issues, while the Marlins look to snap out of a tough stretch on the road. Both teams have identical recent ATS records (2-3), but Chicago’s offense and pitching depth give them an edge in this Marlins vs Cubs prediction.
Injury depth plays a major role in shaping today’s Marlins vs Cubs picks.
Both lineups are missing key players, but Miami’s rotation looks particularly depleted—critical context for this Marlins vs Cubs Best Bets analysis.
According to the latest Marlins vs Cubs prediction data, the Cubs are favored by 1.5 runs. Model projections and market odds both tilt toward Chicago as the more complete team right now.
Let’s take a look at recent Marlins vs Cubs trends:
This Marlins vs Cubs prediction leans on the home-field advantage and deeper model rating for Chicago, despite the equal recent records ATS.
While this article focuses on today’s context, recent trends show the Cubs have historically held the edge at Wrigley Field. That’s another factor supporting today’s Cubs vs Marlins picks.
The Rithmm Pre-Built MLB model powers this Marlins vs Cubs prediction.
It analyzes injuries, recent performance, pitching matchups, and advanced metrics like xERA, run expectancy, and bullpen volatility to create high-confidence predictions.
The Rithmm model projects a final score of Cubs 5.5, Marlins 3.5, giving Chicago a 55.1% win probability to cover the -1.5 run line.
This win edge combined with value pricing creates a strong Marlins vs Cubs pick on the run line.
Let’s compare the best Marlins vs Cubs odds available:
With the Cubs favored, sharp line shopping is crucial to getting maximum value from this Marlins vs Cubs pick.
The best bet in this Marlins vs Cubs prediction is:
Cubs -1.5 (+110)
The model gives them a 55.1% edge on the run line, and with the Marlins' pitching depth heavily impacted, there’s strong value backing Chicago to win by multiple runs.
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