Miami vs California: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF
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The best teams in the nation are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the pack as we enter Week 6 of the 2024 NCAA Football season.
Preview of my Miami vs. California Prediction
While the ACC hasn’t provided a national champion or a real contender since 2018, they have proven they need to be taken seriously this season with a couple really talented teams at the top of the standings. The Miami Hurricanes is one of those teams and they have risen the ranks all the way to number 8. The California Golden Bears haven’t had as much success in recent years but come into this game playing a good brand of football and are looking to play the spoiler role to their ACC foe. College Gameday is in town for this prime-time match up so there is bound to be some fireworks during the game. The Golden Bears play host to the Hurricanes tonight, Saturday, at 10:30 PM EST on ESPN.
Miami Hurricanes Preview
The Miami Hurricanes have a long history of greatness and then had a short period of falling flat. But they have made the full comeback in 2024 and are a force to be reckoned with. They came into the season ranked 19th in the country and after five wins to start the season, they come into this matchup ranked 8th.
Not only have they been winning their games, they have been dominating. Their average margin of victory is 34.4 including a stunning 62-0 win over Ball State in week 3. In the first five weeks of the season, they rank second in the country in offense by yards per game with 585.6 per game. Their defense is also top notch, coming in ranked 15th in the country holding their opposition to just 265 yards per game.
The Hurricanes average 49.4 points per game and are able to score so many points by keeping their offense on the field by converting on 63.79 percent of third downs. The well-balanced offense is a well-oiled machine, accumulating 193 rushing yards per game and 392.6 passing yards per game.
California Golden Bears Preview
The California Golden Bears have had a promising start to the 2024 season. They come into the match up with a 3-1 record and an average margin of victory of 15.33. Their only loss came at the hands of Florida State University where the offense couldn’t get the job done and they lost 14-9.
Coming into week 5, their offense ranks 83rd in the country by total yards per game at 374 and their defense, their strongest unit, ranks 23rd in the country allowing just 287.5 yards per game.
The Golden Bears haven’t been able to sustain long drives, converting on just 38.71 percent of third downs. Averaging just 23 points per game, they depend a lot of their defense to keep them in games and make big time plays. Ideally, they keep the ball on the ground where they average 145.8 yards per game.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Miami vs California AI Prediction
My first thought is that this spread would be high with the 8th ranked Miami team looking to make a statement and continue their quest toward a national championship. However, the spread and over under, as it stands, is Miami -10.5 and 53.5 total points.
My initial inclination is that this is going to be a big test for the Golden Bears to keep it close and I feel Miami is ready to go up early and continue to score often.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first customized model that I created, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that greatly emphasizes an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model has the Miami -12.9 which is a 2.4 point edge on the given spread. This isn’t a surprising result as Miami’s offense is vastly superior.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the California +11.9. This model has California missing out on 1.4 points and giving the edge to Miami.
Lastly, the ”Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has Miami -14.3. This is the largest edge given by the models and gives the Miami Hurricanes a 3.8 point edge on the given spread.
My Miami vs California AI Prediction
Having done my own research and with the models showcasing edges, big and small, towards Miami, I am inclined to stick with my initial thoughts. I think Miami will score early and often and it’ll be too much for California to keep up with. All of that being said, I’m taking the Miami Hurricanes -10.5 in the Miami vs California match up.
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