Miami vs Iowa State: AI Predictions
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It’s Bowl season in college football and while everyone is focused on the first ever 12-team playoff bracket, there are a lot of really good teams that just missed the cut who are still playing “postseason” football.
Preview of my Miami vs. Iowa State Prediction
One team that just missed a bid was the Miami Hurricanes, who finished the season 10-2 but lost two of their last three games and missed out on the ACC championship.
The Iowa State Cyclones ended the season at 10-3 after getting beat down by Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. Both of these teams had high expectations of the playoffs and a national championship but fell just short. That being said, they are both looking to end on a good note and are squaring off in the Pop-Tarts Bowl this Saturday at 3:30 pm EST.
Miami Hurricanes Preview
The Miami Hurricanes must have some sense of disappointment entering into the Bowl season having floundered the opportunity at a national championship. They were ranked high all season long, getting to the 4th ranked team before losing to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in two of the last three weeks. But it is without question that they have one of the best offenses in the country.
The Hurricanes average 44.2 points per game which ended the regular season as first in the country. They averaged an astounding 538.3 yards per game which also ranked first in the country. Staying on the field is important and they are able to convert of 56.08 percent of their third downs and 64.71 percent of their fourth downs.
Their high performing offense is led by, arguably, the best quarter back in the nation, Cam Ward. Ward, who presumably will enter the NFL draft, totaled 4,123 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions while completing 67.4 percent of his passes. On the receiving side, Xavier Restrepo led the team with 1,127 yards on the season and 11 touchdowns, making him Ward’s favorite target.
Iowa State Cyclones Preview
The Iowa State Cyclones had an admirable season by all accounts. They ended the regular season at 10-2 before losing to Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game. They are ranked 18th entering into this game but got as high as ninth back in October.
They finished the year averaging 31.2 points per game and 416.3 yards per game. Offensively, they are able to convert on just 42.47 percent of third downs but are incredibly efficient on fourth downs, converting at an 80.95 percent rate.
They are an offense led by their running game. On the season, they have 437 passing attempts and 485 rushes. Their two-headed monster in the backfield consists of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. Hansen led the team with 670 rushing yards and Sama III finished right behind him with 574 yards. Combined, the team, 4.3 yards per rush. On the passing side, quarterback Rocco Becht, finished the year with 3,235 yards, 22 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Miami vs Iowa State AI Prediction
My first thought is that this spread would be high with the 13th ranked Miami team just missing out of the playoff despite being one of the better teams all season. However, the spread and over under, as it stands, is Miami -3.5 and 56.5 total points. My initial sense is with the recent swoon of Miami at the end of the season, the spread is a bit lower than expected and could provide some value.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first customized model that I created, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that greatly emphasizes an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model has Miami -4.5 which is a 1.0-point edge on the given spread. This isn’t a surprising result as Miami’s offense is vastly superior.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Miami -4.0. This model has Miami with a smaller 0.5-point spread. This checks out as well because of the running game edge that Iowa State seems to have on Miami.
Lastly, the ”Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has Miami -6.8. This is the largest edge given by the models and gives the Miami Hurricanes a 3.3-point edge on the given spread.
My Miami vs Iowa State AI Prediction
Having done my own research and with the models showcasing edges, big and small, towards Miami, I am inclined to stick with my initial thoughts and lean on Miami’s superior offense. I think Miami’s Cam Ward will showcase his NFL potential and keep Miami scoring in bunches. It will end up being too much for Iowa State and this has a chance to be a blow out. All of that being said, I’m taking the Miami Hurricanes -3.5 in the Miami vs Iowa State match up.
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