Michigan vs Washington: AI Predictions - College Football

In a rematch of last season's national championship game, which will feel nothing like a championship rematch, the Michigan Wolverines travel out west to play the Washington Huskies. This will be the 15th overall meeting between these two teams and the 10th played during the regular season with the Wolverines holding a 9 - 5 all-time advantage.

While we leave any perceived hype to the pundits and talking heads, let's see how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction for the Michigan Wolverines vs Washington Huskies.

Preview of Michigan vs Washington AI Prediction

Date: Saturday October 5th

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA

Surface: AstroTurf 3D3

How to Watch: NBC and Peacock

Michigan Wolverines Preview

The #10 ranked Wolverines come into Husky Stadium riding a 3-game winning streak after slipping past a tough Minnesota team last week 27 - 24, and that was after slipping past a tough then-ranked #18 USC Trojans team by the same score 2 weeks ago. This isn't your Michigan of old, or even of last year, but they've found a way to pull out tight games and look to continue that this week in Washington.

Michigan Junior quarterback Alex Orji has gone 20 of 36 for 133 yards this season with three touchdowns and an interception. Last week against Minnesota, his first start after taking over for Davis Warren, he went 10 of 18 for 86 yards, one touchdown and an interception and one sack as well as rushing for 113 yards on 32 carries.

Orji, as well as Warren, have both made a workhorse out of Tight End Colston Loveland who has 228 yards on 23 receptions and one touchdown, averaging 9.9 yards per catch. Both quarterbacks have struggled getting the ball down field as their leading wide receiver, Semaj Morgan, has 12 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown, and he's the 3rd leading receiver on the team behind Loveland and tight end Marlin Klein with 6 catches for 69 yards.

Speaking of workhorses, Kalel Mullings has 77 carries on the season for 540 yards and six touchdowns and he's averaging 7 yards per carry. Mullings has gone over 100 yards rushing three times this season including 111 yards on 24 carries against Minnesota. Along with Donovan Edwards and his 258 yards on 59 carries and two touchdowns and Orji's 113 rushing yards, this is a Michigan offense Bo Schembechler could get behind.

Defensively, Michigan is 29th in the nation in total defense allowing 317.6 yards per game led by their linebackers Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham who have 28 and 24 tackles respectively with Hausmann adding one sack, and defensive lineman Mason Graham who has 19 tackles and three sacks on the season. This is a tough defense and should prove difficult for Washington to score on easily.

Michigan is currently ranked 10th in the AP Top 25 and 26th in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

Washington Huskies Preview

The Huskies enter this game 3 - 2 on the season and coming off of a very difficult loss to Rutgers 21 - 18 last week. Washington has lost two of their last three games by a combined total of eight points and look to take advantage of any opportunities Michigan gives them.

Washington has moved the ball well this season behind quarterback Will Rogers who has 1,354 yards on 110 of 147 passing with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions while being sacked six times. Last week against Rutgers, Rogers had a solid game throwing for 306 yards completing 26 of 36 passes for two touchdowns.

Rogers has a wide receiving duo that will make any team take note as Denzel Boston has 412 yards on 30 catches and seven touchdowns while Giles Jackson has 34 catches for 401 yards and a touchdown. Couple all of that with the running game of Jonah Coleman who has 521 yards on 72 carries and four touchdowns and you have an offense that has the potential to put up points and fast. They will be quite the test for an unrelenting Michigan defense.

The Huskies defense ranks 11th in the nation only giving up 237.5 yards and 10.3 points per game, which makes it even more surprising that they have already lost two games. Led by linebacker Carson Bruener, who has 30 tackles and an interception on the season and fellow linebacker Alphonso Tuputala with 25 tackles and 2.5 sacks, the Huskies defense should be all that Michigan can handle.

Michigan is currently ranked 33rd in the ESPN College Football Power Index for 2024.

How I use Models for Wolverines vs Huskies AI Prediction

What has surprised me about this game so far is the fact that Michigan is ranked 10th, they've only lost one game to the #2 team in the nation in Texas and by all accounts seem to be playing better than Washington. Yet a lot of the data I've been able to cobble together for this game says that the Huskies should win it.

Personally, I'm torn. I typically have many different indicators that primarily lean one way, but in this game, they are all over the place. And that makes this a great place to dig into my Rithmm models for some clarity. 

Except, again, even they are all over the place. So what do I make of it?

Today I'm going out on a limb. I am not a person who "bets their gut" as my gut has said many times to eat some spicy Mexican food followed by a hot fudge sunday. It seldom ends well and the outcome tends to be the same when I'm betting.

So here's the thing, at the time of this writing the money is heavy on Michigan to win this game outright with a 72% bet split. The money is also heavy on Michigan to cover the +2.5 with a 74% bet split. And this line opened at +105 with Michigan as the dog (DK) and has moved steadily up, going as high as +120 at some books, and currently settling at +114 to the Wolverines.

In a vacuum, if Michigan is so heavily favored, why is the line moving towards Washington? This typically indicates strong, sharp money on the Huskies. And my model seems to agree with that sentiment.

I'll be on the Huskies ML -135.

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