Missouri vs Texas A&M: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

This Saturday brings us a Top 25 game in College Station, TX for a conference game in the south. A&M currently leads the series history between the two 9-7 out of 16 all time meetings. A&M took the most recent game between the two back 2021 but as we know now both sides are completely different now in 2024 when they’ll clash for a 17th time. Let’s dive into how I worked with my Rithmm model to develop this prediction for the big game Saturday.

Preview of Rithmm’s Missouri - Texas A&M AI Prediction:

Texas A&M has proved they bounced back from a home opening crushing loss vs Notre Dame now they host yet another top 10 foe in Missouri which most would argue is going to be tougher than Notre Dame earlier this season. On the contrary, Missouri has seemingly struggled this season taking Vanderbilt to overtime, was in a dog fight with Boston College, but have rolled their other two opponents as expected. 

Missouri Preview:

Missouri being undefeated is being a little overreacted. As far as strength of schedule goes, Mizzou ranks just inside the top 120 and today will be their very first trip on the road. We know all about how talented Missouri’s offense is and we know what they’re capable of, but we haven’t really seen that same exciting and show stopping offense we saw last season. Luther Burden, projected first rounder in this upcoming NFL draft has been arguably a ghost and had his struggles this season thus far. The deep threat’s have decreased, they’ve played more the middle of the field to where it’s became borderline predictable at this point. 

This game isn’t just the “Missouri’s Super Bowl” though, theres much plenty to look forward to despite ranking top 120 within their strength of schedule. Alabama and Texas both make an appearance eventually but this game is a stepping stone for Missouri if they want any shot at a CFP title. 

Back tracking to the explosive play topic, that is one of the key metrics in me taking the opposite side in this prediction. On top of that, their ability to finish drives this season hasn’t became much better. Brady Cook is a very talented QB, but he has his days. With that being said he does only have one turnover logged for this season across four games, however, he has also only achieved THREE passes over 20 yards. Mizzou ranks just 129th in explosive play from the pass, and seeing Burden’s target percentage take a massive hit is obviously a big part of that. 

Defensively, they’ve been great, zero complaints. New coordinator, normally we would think it would be a rocky ride but this one has been going quite well, for now. They rank 64th in coverage as a whole and they’ve find great success in getting off the field on third downs. 

Texas A&M Preview: 

Those scrappy Aggies, a team that everyone thought would be a powerhouse in the SEC but somehow end up with Mike Elko. Funny how things change, but in this case, it’s time to buy low into the Aggies. Since week 1, this team has looked exceptionally better. There’s very few advantages in this case for Missouri, but more so lined up to A&M’s side. 

Aggies have a great defensive front led by Nic Scourton. They rank inside the top 15 in stuff rate against the rush. As said before, Mizzou loves those short middle of the field plays, if i’m Elko I am DROOLING. With how talented this front is, if they get to Cook early, it’s going to be a long day. Cook’s numbers when pressured are about as bad as you’d expect, 2.9 YPA, zero touchdowns, a lone INT, it’s just nothing impressive.

The only thing worrying me about this prediction is the A&M offense. The quarterback discussion still isn’t fixed yet, Weigman will be GTD, Reed is also ready to go if needed. Typically, they’re fairly rush heavy about 60% of their plays being runs, but that also limits turnovers sometimes. If Weigman is healthy, that gives us downfield opportunity, if Reed gets the start, that opens up the RPO aspect which so far has been deadly. 

How I use my Rithmm model for Missouri - Texas A&M Prediction:

Although A&M has allowed explosive plays, that doesn’t mean they start now given Missouri’s success within explosive plays. In summary, Missouri just has the same struggles offensively that A&M struggles defending, which is a key play in this prediction. They rank outside top 50 in red zone touchdown rate and finishing drives as stated earlier. My model loved A&M in this sense and I have to say I agree, if Cook is pressured then this defense should feast. 

Missouri is 3-1 ATS after a bye since Drinkwitz showed up in 2020. I sure hope with the ranked team being a dog in this case, that moves to 3-2. Ranked teams being an underdog have been extremely profitable when you take the unranked favorite. 215-128 SU and already 5-2 SU this season. 

As you see, my Rithmm model adores the team with more advantages here. A top ranked defense, solid offense vs a team with a struggling offense and an overrated defense that has had no tests but allows 27 to Vanderbilt? Yeah, give us the Aggies. With my model showing a 57% win probability, I feel comfortable trusting my model to put us in green.

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