Montana State vs New Mexico: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF
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The New Mexico Lobos hosts the number four ranked FCS team, Montana State Bobcats. Learn how I use AI Sports Betting to make my prediction.
Preview of MSU vs NM AI Picks
The Bobcats travel to New Mexico for an FCS versus FBS clash. Normally the FBS school is heavily favored but not in this case. Are the books wrong? Find out in this AI-Powered College Football Prediction.
Montana State University
Montana State University enters the season ranked as the number four team in the NCAA Divison I Football Championship Subdivision, which is no surprise due to their recent success.
- 2021 Lost in FCS Championship Game
- 2022 Lost in FCS Semi-Finals
- 2023 Lost in FCS Second Round
Coach Brent Vigen brings back quarterback, Tommy Mellott. Mellott split time last year at QB but will be the man this year.
The Bobcats finished 2023 with the second-highest scoring offense in FCS at 39.9 points a game. Much the same will be expected in Bozeman this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, they were no slouches. Finishing 26th in all of FCS at 21.83 points a game.
Montana State’s balanced attack is a factor in my AI sports wagering prediction.
New Mexico University
The Lobos are attempting to show the country that they are more than a basketball school. They made a big splash by hiring head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
Coach Mendenhall has a career coaching record of 135-81 with stops at BYU and Virginia University. This will be the coach’s first head coaching job since stepping away in 2021.
The Lobos return just 9 starters on a squad that only won four games last year. They lose their starting quarterback, top running back, three of their top four wide receivers, and their starting offensive line. This is a factor in my AI prediction.
MSU’s defense was a bright spot last year, holding opponents to 26 points per game. But they lose nine starters and their DC from last year.
It will be interesting to see if Coach Mendenhall can work his magic this year in Albuquerque.
How I use Rithmm models for my MSU vs NM AI Prediction
Rithmm’s AI models are only a part of my handicap. I like to do my research and look at the matchups/trends.
Factors that go into my handicap:
- This is the third matchup all-time between these schools, NM is 0-1-1
- Since 2017 NM is 6-0 straight up against FCS schools but only 2-4 ATS
- MSU is returning 14 staters with eight on defense, six on offense
- MSU will have a returning QB
- NM has a new head coach, new QB
- NM only has nine starters return, 3 on offense, and 6 on defense.
- Coach Mendenhall is a former Defensive Coordinator
Currently, Montana State is favored by 11.5 points with the total set at 54.5 points.
Week Zero matchups can be difficult, especially in this era of the transfer portal.
It is commonly known that defenses are normally stronger to begin the year and I believe that will hold true in this matchup.
I’m leaning towards a wager on the under 54.5 points.
Let's see what my Rithmm models have to say.
Using Rithmm Models to Solidify My Prediction for MSU vs NM Prediction
Rithmm allows users to build a minimum of three models. Rithmm runs the necessary simulations and factors in the following ⬇️
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For more on AI tools for sports betting check it out here.
Let’s look at what my models have to say ⬇️
As you can see my model has this game’s point total landing at 49 points with a 63.2% probability. There is nothing as a sure thing when it comes to sports wagering but 63.2% gives me that extra confidence I need to fire on this wager.
To learn how to build an AI sports betting model here.
Rithmm also just added some new tools to their models! Including season trends which is a major asset!
My Montana State vs New Mexico AI Prediction
I’m going with the Under 54.5. I hope you enjoy your week zero and always gamble responsibly.
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