Rithmm's model projections on PRA Unders has been one of the sharpest patterns on the board this season when it comes to unders at this line. Sitting at 24-11 on PRA Under 27.5 with a 68.6% win rate and 29.2% ROI, this is a pattern worth trusting when the model flags it. Tonight it is pointing at Dejounte Murray Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists at -112 against the Trail Blazers.
The model projects Murray at just 22.8 PRA tonight - nearly 5 points below the 27.5 line. That gap produces a 10.3% DTM and earns this pick a Sharp Under tag. Win probability sits at 57.8%.
Murray's L10 shows 4/10 on the under, which reflects some recent variance at this line. The model is weighing that but still sees the matchup and current form pointing well below 27.5. At -112 with a projection of 22.8, there is meaningful value built into this spot.
Pelicans @ Trail Blazers | Tonight 10:00 PM
Model Prediction: 22.8 Pts + Rebs + Asts
Win Chance: 57.8% | DTM: +10.3% | L10: 4/10 | Tag: Sharp Under
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