NC State vs Clemson: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF
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NCAA Football is in full swing as we enter another week of ACC conference play between two teams that are vying for every win they can muster to boost their chances at a possible playoff berth. While the ACC isn’t as highly touted as some of the other conferences, they have produced multiple national champions in the last decade, with their preeminent team being showcased in this matchup.
Preview of my NC State vs. Clemson Prediction
The 21st ranked Clemson Tigers, the national champions in 2016 and 2018, look to continue on their postseason quest against the NC State Wolfpack who look to continue to gain positive momentum for their program and play spoiler to their conference rival. Clemson plays host to NC State this Saturday, September 21st, at 12:00 PM EST on ABC/ESPN.
NC State Wolfpack Preview
The NC State Wolfpack came into the 2024 season ranked 24th in the nation and with high expectations of competing for a conference championship and a playoff berth. They handled their business in the first week but did not play up to their standards against a 14th ranked Tennessee team who beat them 51-10. They bounced back last week against Louisiana Tech with a 30-20 win and come into this match up with a 2-1 record.
The Wolfpack have an incredibly balanced team with 95 passing attempts on the season and 97 rushing attempts on the season. But it is clear that they want to focus on their running game and use it to ground and pound out wins. They average 131.3 yards per game on the ground on a 4.1 yard per game clip.
They supplement that rushing attack in the air where they average just 210.7 yards per game and just 6.7 yards per attempt.
They will look to keep Clemson off the field with long drives and hope that their defense can withstand the Clemson attack enough to remain competitive. NC State comes into this contest with the 103rd ranked total offense and the 89th ranked total defense in FBS.
Clemson Tigers Preview
The Clemson Tigers are a far cry from the dominant program they were just 6-8 years ago, but they still have high aspirations to make a deep run and compete for a national title. They came into the 2024 season ranked 14th but took a beating against the number one ranked Georgia Bulldogs. They followed that loss up with a beating of their own against Appalachian State, winning 66-20.
They come into this matchup as the 21st ranked team, the 33rd best total offense, and the 103rd ranked total defense.
The star quarterback Cade Klubnik is connecting on 76.4 percent of his passes and as a team, they are averaging 301 yards per game passing on an astonishing 8.9 yards per attempt. Their defense hasn’t started the season like they hoped, surrendering 405 total yards per game and 6.23 yards per play.
The Tigers want to throw the ball and then finish games off on the ground. They will look to lean on their strength and put the Wolfpack away early.
How I Use Rithmm Models for NC State vs Clemson AI Prediction
It can be difficult to analyze spreads and over/unders with such high numbers and this game is just that. The spread is Clemson -20.5 and the total is o/u 48.
Initial inclination is that this is going to be a closer game than the spread indicates. With NC State having already been ranked this year and with a well-balanced overall team, the points are enticing.
On the other hand, with the Clemson passing game, they may score quickly and often, and NC State won’t have the offensive prowess to keep up.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I personally customized, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that leans on an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model has the NC State +18.2 which is almost a two-point edge on the given spread. This was a surprise to see knowing Clemsons ability to pass and score points.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Clemson -19.4. It is not a significant edge, but it slightly favors NC State.
Lastly, the ”Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has Clemson -15.5. This is the largest edge given by the models and gives the NC State Wolfpack a 5-point edge on the given spread. .
My NC State vs Clemson AI Prediction
Having done my own research and with the models showcasing edges, big and small, towards NC State,I am leaning towards taking the points on the spread. I think the Wolfpack will be able to keep the score relatively close with their running game and time of possession battle. All of that being said, I’m taking the NC State Wolfpack +20.5 in the NC State vs Clemson match up.
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