NCAA Tournament Best Bet Today: Miami -1.5 vs Missouri

Published on
March 20, 2026
Sean Ramsey
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Day 2 of Round 1 is here, and tonight's late slate has a game worth watching closely. The Rithmm team is on Miami -1.5 vs Missouri, and here's why.

The Pick

Miami (FL) -1.5 (-103) vs Missouri. Tip-off is at 10:10 PM ET at Enterprise Center on truTV. Miami comes in as the #7 seed; Missouri is the #10.

What the Model Says

This Rithmm model projects a final score of Miami 75.1, Missouri 71.6 — a 3.5-point Miami win. That's meaningful: the model predicts Miami not just covering -1.5, but covering it with margin to spare.

Win probability on the spread: 57.8%. Edge over the closing line (DTM): +14.2%.

Three separate Rithmm models all side with Miami on the spread — the house model at 51.6%, Fox2 at 54.3%, and the top-rated model at 57.8%. When multiple independent models converge on the same side, that's signal worth acting on.

The model's read: Miami likes both the prediction and the price.

The Bottom Line

Miami -1.5 (-103). Model projects a 3.5-point Miami win. 57.8% probability. Multiple models aligned. Tonight at 10:10 PM ET.

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