Notre Dame vs Navy: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

Preview of Notre Dame vs Navy AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Notre Dame Preview 

Notre Dame has little room for error as an Independent team, and while they've won three straight games—all against ACC opponents—they can't afford any slip-ups. They recently secured victories over Louisville (31-24), Stanford (49-7), and Georgia Tech (31-13). However, their playoff hopes could be dashed by an earlier 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7. Despite facing a weakened Georgia Tech team, missing quarterback Haynes King, the Irish still fell behind by 14 points before rallying at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Riley Leonard led the comeback with 203 passing yards (20-of-29), 51 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. Running back Jeremiyah Love added 93 total yards and a rushing touchdown, while safety Adam Shuler capped off the win with a 36-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Riley Leonard, a Duke transfer, has been a dual threat, completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,182 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions, while also rushing for 456 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns. Jeremiyah Love leads the ground game with 462 rushing yards and seven touchdowns (6 yards per carry). Beaux Collins, a transfer from Clemson, is the top receiver with 26 receptions for 317 yards and one touchdown.

Defensively, Notre Dame ranks among the best in the country under head coach Marcus Freeman. They allow just 279 yards per game (10th in the nation), including 165.9 passing yards (13th) and 113.1 rushing yards (30th). Opponents are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, 11.9 points per game (5th), and a 48.8% completion rate (2nd). Offensively, Notre Dame is averaging 398.6 yards per game (64th), with 209.6 rushing yards per game (9th in the nation), though their passing game ranks lower at 189 yards per game (105th).

**Key injuries**: Kicker Mitch Jeter (35 points) is questionable, and defensive lineman Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) is out for the season with a knee injury, while Coleman has rushed for 601 yards and five touchdowns. 

Navy Preview 

Navy has undoubtedly dominated a relatively soft schedule, securing wins against UAB (41-18), Temple (38-11), FCS Bucknell (59-32), and most recently Charlotte (51-17) to improve to 4-0 in the AAC. However, their season hasn't been without notable victories, including an upset over Memphis (56-44) as 9-point underdogs on Sept. 21, and a commanding 34-7 win on the road against rival Air Force on Oct. 5.

Coming off a bye week, Navy overwhelmed Charlotte, a team that had won two consecutive games by a combined score of 76-44. In front of over 35,000 fans in Annapolis, Navy jumped out to a 38-0 lead. Cornerback Dashaun Peele made school history with two interception returns for touchdowns in the same game. Quarterback Blake Horvath was efficient, completing 7 of 13 passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 56 rushing yards. Fullback Alex Tecza contributed 68 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Although Navy's defense allowed 299 rushing yards on 48 carries, they limited Charlotte to just 8-of-22 passing for 163 yards.

Running a more versatile option/Wing-T offense, Horvath has completed 63.9% of his passes (46 of 72) for 888 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception. He also leads the team in rushing with 621 yards (7.9 yards per carry) and 10 touchdowns. Tecza has added 306 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while split end Eli Heidenrech has been a key playmaker, with 23 catches for 485 yards and five touchdowns.

Navy continues to excel in the run game, averaging 274.8 rushing yards per game (4th in the nation) and 6.0 yards per carry (5th). They rank 7th in yards per play (7.3) and 34th in total yards per game (435.8). However, their defense faces a challenge, allowing 389.7 total yards per game, including 165 rushing yards (95th nationally). 

How I Use Rithmm Models for of Notre Dame vs Navy AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

1. Head-to-Head Trends:

• Notre Dame Dominance: Notre Dame has historically dominated the series against Navy. In the last 10 meetings, Notre Dame has won 9 times, with Navy’s lone victory coming in 2016. Notre Dame has consistently shown superiority in both talent and execution in this rivalry.
• Notre Dame’s Recent Winning Streak: The Fighting Irish have won four straight games against Navy, including a commanding 35-32 victory in their most recent matchup. Notre Dame typically wins these games by comfortable margins, and they have often covered the spread as favorites.

2. Performance Against the Spread (ATS):

• Navy ATS vs. Notre Dame: Despite Notre Dame’s success in this rivalry, Navy has historically performed well against the spread in these matchups. Navy has covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games against Notre Dame, thanks in large part to their ability to keep games competitive with their triple-option offense.
• Notre Dame as a Favorite: Notre Dame is often heavily favored in these matchups, but their ability to cover large spreads has been inconsistent. The Irish have been favored by double digits in most recent games against Navy, and while they’ve won, Navy’s ability to control the pace with their running game has allowed them to stay within striking distance and cover the spread.

3. Navy’s Style of Play:

• Navy’s Run-Heavy Offense: Navy’s triple-option offense is designed to control the clock and wear down opponents. They rank among the top teams in the country in rushing yards per game and time of possession, which helps them keep games close, even against stronger opponents like Notre Dame.
• Navy's Scoring Trends: Navy has struggled to put up significant points against elite defenses like Notre Dame’s. While they can grind out drives, their lack of explosive plays often results in fewer scoring opportunities against a well-prepared defense.

4. Notre Dame’s Defense vs. Navy’s Option Offense:

• Defending the Option: Notre Dame has had mixed success against Navy’s triple-option in recent years. While they’ve won most games, the option offense has sometimes given the Irish trouble, especially early in games before adjustments are made. However, under defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman (now head coach), Notre Dame has shown more discipline against the option, improving their ability to shut down Navy’s attack.
• Notre Dame’s Defensive Strengths: Notre Dame’s defense has been strong this season, particularly against the run. They rank among the top teams in the country in rush defense, which will be key in neutralizing Navy’s option attack.

5. Over/Under Trends:

• Low-Scoring Affairs: Games between Navy and Notre Dame tend to trend toward the under, largely due to Navy’s ball-control style and Notre Dame’s defensive strength. The under has hit in 6 of the last 10 matchups between these teams. Navy’s ability to run the clock and limit possessions can lead to lower-scoring games, even if Notre Dame wins comfortably.
• Recent Over/Under: The last few matchups between these teams have gone over the total, with Navy finding some success offensively and Notre Dame putting up points as well. However, the overall trend leans toward lower-scoring games due to Navy’s control of the clock.

6. Notre Dame’s Offensive Trends:

• Explosive Plays: Notre Dame’s offense, led by a more balanced attack with quarterback play and a strong running game, has been able to put up big numbers against weaker defenses. They’ve shown the ability to score quickly and efficiently, which could challenge Navy’s defense, especially if they fall behind early.
• Run Game Strength: Notre Dame's run game is likely to excel against Navy's defense, which has struggled at times to stop power running teams. This could allow the Irish to control the tempo and rack up points.

7. Navy’s Defense:

• Struggles vs. Balanced Offenses: Navy’s defense has struggled against more balanced teams that can run and pass effectively, which is a concern when facing Notre Dame. The Midshipmen allow more than 160 rushing yards per game, which could be a major issue against Notre Dame’s strong running attack.
• Improvement Needed: Navy will need to step up defensively, especially against Notre Dame’s passing game. Their secondary will be tested against the Irish, who have shown the ability to hit big plays through the air.

8. Coaching & Preparation:

• Marcus Freeman vs. Navy’s Option: As Notre Dame’s head coach, Marcus Freeman has shown he can prepare his defense well, particularly against run-heavy teams. His experience as a defensive coordinator should help Notre Dame better manage Navy’s option attack.

Summary:

• Notre Dame Dominance: Historically, Notre Dame has controlled this matchup, winning 9 of the last 10 games.
• Navy ATS: Despite losing most games outright, Navy has been solid against the spread, covering in 6 of the last 10 matchups.
• Ball Control and Low Scoring: Navy’s option offense tends to slow games down, leading to lower-scoring affairs, though recent games have seen higher point totals.
• Notre Dame’s Offensive Edge: The Irish have the advantage on offense, particularly with their balanced attack, which could wear down Navy’s defense.

If Notre Dame can handle Navy’s option offense early, they have the talent and depth to cover the spread. However, Navy’s ability to control the clock and keep games close makes them a potential threat to cover, even if they don’t win outright.

My Notre Dame vs Navy AI Prediction

Navy has impressed so far this season, but this game presents a significant jump in   competition. While they've handled weaker teams and Memphis, which is solid but nowhere near Notre Dame's caliber defensively, this will be a true test. Navy's offense has been excellent, but they'll face a Marcus Freeman-led defense that knows the key to stopping them lies in containing quarterback Blake Horvath. Notre Dame excels at stopping the run, ranking 30th nationally, and they're equally strong against the pass, ranking 13th in pass defense.

Navy does mix in some passing, but the Irish will focus on limiting big plays, which is central to Navy's strategy—luring defenses in with the run and then striking deep with passes to Eli Heidenreich. Notre Dame's defense has allowed just 11.9 points per game this season and has given up more than 16 points just once (24 points to Louisville). Expect Notre Dame’s defense to be up to the task of slowing down Navy’s attack. 

Selection: Notre Dame -12

If you’re looking for more Rithmms’ AI Picks you can check them out here.

Make your own predictions with your free Rithmm trial

This AI-driven analysis is just a glimpse of what you can expect when using Rithmm. Whether you’re looking to refine your betting strategy or want to explore in-depth data trends, Rithmm's AI tools for sports betting has all you need. Don't miss out on making more informed decisions—download the Rithmm app today for full access to our AI college football predictions and custom sports betting models.