Notre Dame vs USC: AI Predictions - College Football
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It is the last regular season week in the College Football Season and the rivals are squaring off all across the country. As they do every year, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish go head-to-head with the USC Trojans in Southern California. Most years, this is a battle of top national teams fighting for a national championship opportunity, but this year just the Fighting Irish are ranked.
Notre Dame, ranked fifth in the country, look to lock in their playoff birth and a home game in the first ever 12-team playoff. USC looks to play spoiler to their rival. This prime time game kicks off at 3:30 pm EST on CBS as the 5th ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the USC Trojans.
Preview of my Notre Dame vs. USA Prediction
The Fighting Irish have been a top team all season long. With the exception of an uncharacteristic close loss to Northern Illinois back in early September, they have been dominant. With an offense averaging 39 points per game and a defense giving up just 11.64 points per game, they have been blowing teams away.
The USC Trojans season started out promising with a great win against the-then 13th ranked LSU Tigers and then a blow out against Utah State. They were ranked 11th in the country but then went on to lose 4 of their next 5 games and the season seemed lost.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview
The sixth ranked offense by scoring is led by a strong and powerful running game. Led by a three-headed monster of running backs Jeremiyah Love (850 rushing yards) and Jadarian Price (540 rushing yards), and running quarterback Riley Leonard (671 rushing yards), Notre Dame averages 221.8 rushing yards per game which is good for 10th in the country. They average 6.3 yards per rush and just 7.2 yards per passing attempt.
The defense has been as stout as any in college football. They are the second ranked defense in the country by scoring with that previously mentioned 11.64 points surrendered per game. The 273.1 yards per game surrendered is good for 4th in the country and their +16 turnover margin is the second best in the country.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and 2-0 as the away team.
USC Trojans Preview
Junior quarterback Miller Moss leads the USC offense that scores an average of 29.3 points per game. Moss averages 285.5 passing yards per game and the Trojans average 144.3 rushing yards per game. The passing offense is ranked 14th in the country while the rushing attack ranks just 84th in the nation.
The defense has been solid for the USC Trojans all season long. They give up 21.18 points per game which is good for 32nd in the country. However, the turnover margin has been disappointing. They have forced just 19 on the season while they have given the ball up 21 times for a -2 turnover margin.
The USC Trojans are 3-2 against the spread in their last five games and 2-0 as the home team.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Notre Dame vs USC AI Prediction
The spread and over/under for this game is Notre Dame -7.5 and 52.5.
These rivalry games tend to be closer regardless of the two team’s seasons up to this point. Rivalry games bring out the best in the players and upsets can easily happen. Notre Dame is clearly the better team, but USC has the talent to keep up with them. Seeing the spread, my initial inclination is to take USC getting the points.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NCAAF AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first customized model that I created, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that greatly emphasizes an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system heavily. This model has USC +6.8 which is a 0.7-point advantage on the given spread but towards the Notre Dame side.
The next model I created for the NCAAF season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has USC +8. This is a 0.5-point edge towards the USC side which is surprising because of Notre Dame’s superior running game.
Lastly, the “Rithmm AI” model that was created for me by the Rithmm app and evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has USC at +7.9 which is a 0.4-point edge on the given spread.
My Notre Dame vs USC AI Prediction
Having done my own research and with two of the three models showing slight edges towards USC, I am going to stick with my initial assessment. I am hoping the home field advantage, and the rivalry aspect of the game gives the Trojans a spark. I’m taking the USC Trojans +7.5 in the Notre Dame vs USC match up.
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