Ohio State vs Michigan State: AI Predictions

Conference games are upon us as we work towards to the middle of the college football season and this Saturday night brings us a big dog in a rivalry game with 3-1 Michigan State hosting the loaded talent from Columbus, OH, THE #3 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Preview of Rithmm’s Ohio State - Michigan State AI Prediction

Ohio State looks to make 9 straight wins over the Spartans this Saturday when they travel to East Lansing in hopes for what is a closer game than what the past games have been. Michigan State looks to get their first win over Ohio State since 2015 in The Shoe when they took the defending champs down with Mark Dantonio. Now newly acquired Head Coach Jonathan Smith and his transfer QB from Oregon State, Aidan Chiles, look to make history over a very experienced Ohio State team that, on paper, many have winning the National Championship this season.

Ohio State Preview

Ohio State has been nothing short of impressive to start this season. Tons of experience on both sides of the ball, among multiple on multiples of highly sought after recruits on both sides who also have been playing like they’ve been here for years. 

The Bucks rank top 5 both in scoring offense and scoring defense this season. Offensively, they’re averaging 52 points per game, on the contrary, defensively they’re allowing on average under a touchdown, 6.67 points per game to be exact. Now we look at the story behind the numbers in who they’ve played, which for who they have played these numbers are definitely to be expected. Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, all within the Top 90 of total offense and total defense. With that being said though, with all the upsets we’ve seen around the league, we still should credit Ohio State for the amount of success they’ve had thus far, but would also say we are excited and anticipating the way they show their true colors in a somewhat sleeper conference schedule, starting off in East Lansing. 

Ultimately it’s hard to cap this kind of game given Ohio State’s metrics along with their success play rate. However, we know there is one thing they’re statistically well at which is their high powered passing attack. As to no-one’s surprise they rank just inside the top 10 among passing efficiency with guys like JJ Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, many others, then your checkdowns are even threats with mainly being Henderson and Judkins from the backfield. 

With a backfield RB room and offensive line like the one in Columbus we know one thing is for certain, they can and will run the ball if and when they have to. As of now they’re ranking just outside of top 10 rushing as a team across the country  behind teams with Heisman type rushers like Boise State and of course the service academy’s, (Navy, Army, Air Force), but we all know Judkins and Henderson are light years ahead to guys like those. Which brings us to point one of why we’re leaning the way of a specific pick.

This plays a key role in my Ohio State vs Michigan State AI prediction.

Michigan State Preview

Sparty is coming off a tough loss from visiting Boston College in a game they probably should’ve won. As always, it’s tough to win on the road this week and I think we can say Michigan State and crew have surpassed some’s expectations this year as they stand at 3-1 before conference play. Unfortunately for them, it’ll only get harder from here on out. 

Transfer QB Aiden Chiles is probably the biggest story on this team here. Follows his coach from Corvallis to East Lansing in hopes for a better opportunity with Oregon State losing half of it’s “power” from the Pac-12. Now finds themselves with a quality road win over Maryland, a battle with Boston College that many thought wouldn’t be close, and a solid blow out over a low quality opponent, sorry Prairie View. 

Although the numbers don’t say on paper, they are a top 90 offense in the country but are proven they have the talent to make big plays happen at any given time. As a passing offense, they are just outside the top 50 as a team but playing teams who are great against the air attack, like Boston College and Maryland, top 50 is somewhat above average, especially good enough for an 18 year old QB in his first career starting season. The only downside to a pass heavy offense like MSU’s is the fact their run game is borderline non-existent. Just averaging 150 yards per game isn’t very ideal here in this spot especially over a talented defense in Ohio State. 

What draws me to this team is their defense. Overall ranking top 15 in total defense is a number I want to see when playing a high powered offense in Ohio State. Ranking top 5 in the red zone as a defensive unit as a whole is something to keep an eye out for as well, holding this OSU team to field goals and long 2nd/3rd downs will be key in this game for them if they want any shot at a win but good thing we have a high spread just to give us that sliver of hope. Key strength on defensive side being their pass defense is something to keep an out for in this game as they rank top 25 in pass efficiency on the defensive side, holding this secondary accountable to keep up with the studs on the outside hashes for OSU will be very fun to watch, hopefully forcing them on the ground to slow this game down enough, and even on the ground, they’re still a top 25 rushing defense statistically.

How I use my Rithmm model for Ohio State vs Michigan State Prediction

First of all I’d like to start by bragging that my Rithmm model won me over 10 units ($1,000) this past weekend across College Football on my picks and I’m fully trusting and believing in a miracle here as we open up week 5. My model is showing extremely high DTM’s on Michigan State +25 along with a slight interest in the Under 49.5

This high of a spread is very attainable given Michigan State’s defensive success along with a sneaky offense who can breakout any time. The defense has forced turnovers in back to back games over the power 4 opponents they’ve played and I think we can create some havoc here and stress Will Howard out in his first road test in the B1G. Only allowing 82 total rush yards from Maryland, yet allowing 152 from Boston College mainly from Castellanos, I think Ohio State slowing the game down with the run gives us clear room for a backdoor or a wide open range to cover this 3 possession spread in a hostile environment. 

While Ohio State running the ball slows the game down, it opens up a second prediction in this game that was mentioned that my Rithmm model loved, the Under 49.5. Again, a number that is very attainable given the weather being semi-hot around high 70’s with moderate wind gusts of about 9mph, several systems tracking here shows a highly profitable edge to back the under in home dog “high temp” games. 

Lastly to back the under, Rithmm’s trend tab is showing significant numbers in ways the last 10 games Ohio State - Michigan State have played, the under has been an absolute cash cow. Spartans are already 1-3 already this season, along with 3-5 to the O/U as a dog. On top of that, the last 10 matches of OSU - MSU, 3-7 to the under. Why not keep the train rolling here?

I used all of this data in my in my Ohio State vs Michigan State AI prediction.

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