The Thunder travel to Memphis for a late-season matchup, and the model is lighting up one side of the total. With OKC pushing the pace and the Grizzlies playing looser at home, the Thunder vs Grizzlies over/under market offers a strong value play. Below are our Thunder vs Grizzlies predictions, including a projected score, betting trends, injury news, and the best odds available.

Preview of Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction

The Thunder enter this matchup with one of the league’s most efficient offenses, while Memphis has been more competitive at home than their overall record suggests. The posted total for Wednesday night sits at 227.0.

Model Score Prediction:

• Thunder: 120.6
• Grizzlies: 112.1
• Total: 232.7

That gives us a 5.7-point cushion over the line, making this one of our top Thunder vs Grizzlies best bets of the night.

Who is Favored in Thunder vs Grizzlies?

Oklahoma City is favored on the spread and moneyline, but the Thunder vs Grizzlies over/under is where the model sees the most value. With a combined projected total nearing 233, this game sets up well for an over ticket to cash.

Injury Reports for Thunder vs Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries:

• Ousmane Dieng (Calf) – Out
• Nikola Topić (ACL) – Out for Season

Memphis Grizzlies Injuries:

• Brandon Clarke (Knee) – Out for Season
• Jaylen Wells (Wrist) – Out for Season

The Thunder’s rotation remains largely intact, while the Grizzlies continue to miss depth players in the frontcourt — which could contribute to a faster, less defensive game.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Betting Trends

Over/Under Trends (Last 5 Games):

• Thunder: 2-3 O/U
• Grizzlies: 2-3 O/U

Home/Away Over/Under Splits:

• Thunder (Away): 2-1 O/U
• Grizzlies (Home): 2-0 O/U

Role-Based Over/Under Records:

• Thunder as Favorite: 2-3 O/U
• Grizzlies as Underdog: 2-3 O/U

Even with these under-leaning trends, both teams are averaging over 105 PPG, and the Thunder’s 112.8 average lines up well with our Thunder vs Grizzlies total prediction.

Model Used for Thunder vs Grizzlies Best Bets

This pick is powered by a pre-built NBA betting model that incorporates pace, adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, player injury impacts, and recent performance data.

📊 Recommended Bet: Over 227.0

• Win Probability: 61.9%
• Odds: -110

With a projected score of 232.7, this Thunder vs Grizzlies pick clears the total by nearly 6 points — a strong signal to fire on the Over.

Best Odds for Thunder vs Grizzlies

Line shopping is essential when betting totals. Here's where to find the best price on the Thunder vs Grizzlies over/under:

Best Odds for Over 227:

• DraftKings: Over 226.5 (-110) ✅ Best line
• FanDuel: Over 227.0 (-110)
• PointsBet: Over 227.5 (-111)
• MGM: Over 226.5 (-115)

✅ Tip: Lock in Over 226.5 at DraftKings before it jumps.

My Thunder vs Grizzlies Pick

Pick: Over 226.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The Thunder are likely to dictate tempo, and the Grizzlies have quietly contributed to higher-scoring games at home. The model makes this a top-rated Thunder vs Grizzlies best bet, with a win probability near 62%. Grab the Over while the line sits under 227.

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