OSU vs KSU: AI Predictions - College Football NCAAF

In this article, we'll break down a prediction for the Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State matchup in College Football Week 5, taking place on Saturday, September 28th, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Let's analyze the key factors and provide a Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys pick for this exciting game.

Preview of Oklahoma State vs Kansas State AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Kansas St Preview 

Just last week, Kansas State was being mentioned in College Football Playoff discussions, but if they want to remain in that conversation, they'll need a quick and decisive turnaround. After winning their first three games, Kansas State was favored on the road against BYU, but the offense faltered, scoring just nine points while the defense allowed 38, leading to a lopsided defeat. Quarterback Avery Johnson struggled, completing 15 of 28 passes for 130 yards and throwing two interceptions. This performance was a far cry from their dominant showing two games prior against Arizona, where the team scored 38 points, and Johnson rushed for 110 yards on 10 carries.

So far this season, Kansas State is averaging 28.8 points per game, while their defense is giving up 19.5. Offensively, they are ranked 78th in the nation, and their defense sits at 45th. For Kansas State to get back on track, Johnson will need to perform better from the start, especially under center, to lead a more efficient offense. 

Oklahoma State Preview 

Oklahoma State also suffered their first loss of the season in their last game against the Utah Utes. Despite a late surge, scoring 16 points in the fourth quarter, it wasn’t enough as they fell 22-19. Utah was playing with a backup quarterback, but Oklahoma State’s main issue was their offense, which struggled to find rhythm early in the game. Alan Bowman passed for 206 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and while he was benched during the game, he’s expected to remain the starting quarterback moving forward. Running back Ollie Gordon, one of the nation's top backs, had a quiet game with just 42 yards on 11 carries, far below expectations.

This season, Oklahoma State is averaging 36.7 points per game, while their defense is allowing 20.8 points. Offensively, they are ranked 29th in the nation, with their defense ranked 55th. For Oklahoma State to rebound, they’ll need a more balanced and effective performance, especially from their key playmakers like Gordon​ 

How I Use Rithmm Models Oklahoma State vs Kansas State AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Kansas State Trends:

• Kansas State has struggled recently, with a tough loss against BYU, where turnovers were a major issue. However, they are expected to bounce back, especially with quarterback Avery Johnson showing potential in previous games.
• Historically, Kansas State has performed well against Oklahoma State, especially at home, where they defeated them 48-0 two years ago. They are also coming into this game as 6-point favorites​

Oklahoma State Trends:

• Oklahoma State’s offense has been inconsistent this season, with standout running back Ollie Gordon being held to just 42 yards in their recent loss to Utah. They have struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games​
• Oklahoma State has covered the spread in two of their three games against FBS opponents this season, but they face a tough challenge on the road against a strong Kansas State defense 

 Head-to-Head Trends:

• Kansas State has dominated Oklahoma State in recent years, particularly at home. The Wildcats have a 48-0 home victory over the Cowboys two years ago, and they have consistently performed well against Oklahoma State in Manhattan

Betting Trends:

• The under has hit in two of three games for both teams this season. This suggests the game could be lower scoring than expected, especially with both defenses being relatively solid​
• Kansas State has covered the spread more consistently at home, while Oklahoma State has struggled to cover in away games​

My Oklahoma State vs Kansas State AI Prediction

The under is a strong possibility for the Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State game for several reasons:

Defensive Strength: 

• Both teams have been relatively solid defensively. Kansas State is allowing just 19.5 points per game, ranking 45th nationally, while Oklahoma State is giving up 20.8 points per game. This shows that both defenses are capable of limiting scoring, especially in key moments.
• Inconsistent Offenses: While both teams have had high-scoring games, their offenses have shown inconsistency. Kansas State struggled significantly in their last game against BYU, managing only 9 points, largely due to turnovers and offensive misfires. Similarly, Oklahoma State’s offense failed to get into a rhythm against Utah, scoring just 19 points​

Head-to-Head History: 

• In recent meetings, these teams have not put up massive scores. For example, the last time Kansas State hosted Oklahoma State, they shut out the Cowboys 48-0. Moreover, in last year's game, the final score was a moderate 29-21, pointing toward a competitive but lower-scoring game​

Game Pace and Style:

• Both teams may rely more on their ground game and defense, particularly if Kansas State tries to control the clock with their running attack and Oklahoma State looks to get Ollie Gordon more involved after his recent struggles. A slower pace and reliance on defense often lead to fewer points.

For these reasons, the under 55.5 points bet seems likely to hit, as both teams will focus on limiting mistakes and tightening up defensively​ 

Selection: Under +55.5

If you’re looking for more Rithmms’ AI Picks you can check them out here.

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