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Packers vs Cardinals: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game

October 13, 2024

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The Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers meet Sunday in NFL action from Lambeau Field. 

Preview of Packers vs Cardinals AI Predictions

Our AI Picks have you covered for this game + many more

Packers Preview 

The Packers recently took on the Los Angeles Rams, securing a 24-19 victory in what was not their most impressive outing. A strong third quarter, where they scored 14 points, was enough to seal the win. Jordan Love completed 15 of 26 passes for 224 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. Josh Jacobs contributed with a solid performance on the ground, rushing 19 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. Jaire Alexander is still dealing with a groin injury, and his status for the next game remains uncertain.

The Packers are averaging 25.6 points per game while allowing 21.6 points defensively. Their offense is ranked 8th in the league, and their defense sits at 14th. For this game, the offense will need to step up, with Jordan Love expected to have a significant impact. After this matchup, the Packers are set to face the Texans. 

Cardinals Preview 

The Cardinals have had an up-and-down start to the season but are coming off an impressive win. They scored 24 points in their last game and shut out San Francisco 14-0 in the second half to secure a narrow one-point victory. Kyler Murray went 19 of 30 for 195 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, while James Conner added 86 yards on 19 carries. The defense also stepped up, intercepting Brock Purdy twice—a trend they'll need to continue if they want success in this matchup.

So far, the Cardinals are averaging 24 points per game, but their defense is allowing 25.8 points per game. With the offense ranked 12th and the defense ranked 27th, the Cardinals will need their defense to step up significantly in this game. 

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Packers vs Cardinals AI Prediction:

With Rithmm’s AI Picks model you are able to dive deep into just about any trend you can think of, below is just a snap shot of what I pulled for todays game. 

Packers Trends:

  1. Against the Spread (ATS):some text
    • The Packers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 9 games as road underdogs.
    • They tend to perform well following a loss, with a solid ATS record in such games.
  2. Scoring:some text
    • The Packers have been averaging around 25.6 points per game, while their defense is allowing 21.6 points per game.
    • Green Bay has hit the over in 5 of their last 7 road games, indicating they often participate in higher-scoring affairs away from home.
  3. Head-to-Head with the Cardinals:some text
    • The Packers have struggled against the Cardinals recently, failing to cover in their last 3 matchups.
    • They are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arizona, suggesting they may face challenges playing in Glendale.

Cardinals Trends:

  1. Against the Spread (ATS):some text
    • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as home underdogs.
    • Arizona has a tendency to perform well at home, particularly when playing against NFC opponents.
  2. Scoring:some text
    • The Cardinals have been averaging 24 points per game, while allowing 25.8 points, indicating they often end up in close, high-scoring games.
    • In their last 6 home games, the Cardinals have gone over the total in 4, showing a tendency toward high-scoring contests at home.
  3. Head-to-Head with the Packers:some text
    • Arizona has won 3 of the last 4 matchups against Green Bay, both straight up (SU) and ATS, which could suggest an edge in recent head-to-head matchups.
    • The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall, demonstrating some success against the Packers historically.

Additional Insights:

  • Over/Under Trends: Both teams have shown a tendency to go over the total in recent games, especially when facing each other. The Packers' defensive ranking and the Cardinals' high points allowed per game also point to the potential for a high-scoring game.
  • Home and Road Trends: While Green Bay has been a relatively strong road team, Arizona has shown resilience at home, especially when playing as underdogs.

These trends suggest that while Green Bay has a strong offense and some positive road trends, Arizona has been more successful ATS recently against the Packers, especially at home. This game may also favor the over, given the offensive tendencies and defensive weaknesses of both teams.

My Packers vs Cardinals AI Prediction

I believe that Jordan Love will continue to improve as he recovers from his injury and should regain his form from last season. The last five quarters have shown promising progress in that direction. 

Arizona’s defense, meanwhile, has struggled, allowing 5.9 yards per play and ranking in the lower half of the league in Pressure Percentage, according to Pro-Football-Reference. They’re also in the bottom 10 in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed, rank 27th in Dropback EPA, and 32nd in Dropback Success Rate. Clearly, there’s a pattern of defensive shortcomings here. 

Although the passing game has gotten off to a slow start with Love’s injury and Malik Willis stepping in, this was the fourth-best offense in Dropback EPA last season. I expect them to find their rhythm against Arizona’s lackluster pass rush and vulnerable secondary. 

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Selection: Packers -5 

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Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

  • Jordan Love has recorded 218+ passing yards in each of his last 14 regular season appearances.
  • Tucker Kraft has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of the Packers’ last eight regular-season games against NFC opponents.
  • Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances against NFC West opponents.
  • Josh Jacobs has recorded 69+ rushing yards in each of his five previous appearances against NFC West opponents.
  • Josh Jacobs has recorded 94+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against NFC West opponents.
  • Jordan Love has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his last 10 Sunday appearances.
  • Heading into Week 6, Xavier McKinney ranks 1st in the NFL in interceptions (5) this season.

Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Facts

  • Kyler Murray has recorded 239+ passing yards in 11 of his last 13 appearances following a road win.
  • Elijah Higgins has recorded 11+ receiving yards in 10 of the Cardinals’ last 11 games.
  • James Conner has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Cardinals’ last 10 games.
  • Kyler Murray has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances following a win.
  • James Conner has recorded 83+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of the Cardinals’ last 10 Sunday games.
  • Kyler Murray has recorded 23+ completions in seven of his last eight regular season road appearances against NFC opponents.
  • Kyler Murray has thrown two or more touchdowns in six of his last seven regular-season appearances with the Cardinals as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
  • Jalen Thompson is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

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