Packers vs Jaguars: AI Prediction

After spending the last couple of weeks as guests in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars return home to face the Green Bay Packers in an inter-conference matchup.

Below, we'll discuss different features of the App that I used for my NFL predictions including trends, player props, AI generated predictions and best odds all curated from the Rithmm App. At the end of this post, you'll understand how Rithmm's AI-driven models can help you make a more informed decision when placing your weekly bets.

How to Watch Packers vs Jaguars NFL Game

• Time: Saturday October 27th, 1:00 PM ET
• Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
• Surface: Natural Grass
• How to Watch: FOX or NFL Sunday Ticket

Preview and Analysis for Packers vs Jaguars AI Prediction

Let's take a look at this game before I show you how I used the Rithmm App to create custom sports betting models to get my AI prediction.

Jaguars Preview

Jacksonville returns home after spending some time in their home away from home, London, where they split their two games, winning against the Patriots 32 - 16 and losing to the Bears 35 - 16. The Jags are 2 - 5 on the young season and are currently sitting in 3rd place in the AFC South and looking to build on a solid game last week against New England.

The next few weeks have the potential to be a defining moment in the Jags season as they head into the meat of their schedule. The next five games find themselves playing teams who currently have a 24 - 8 combined record, and they will start with the Packers.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is coming off of a solid performance last week against the Patriots throwing for 193 yards on 15 of 20 passing including a touchdown and no sacks. This is the type of performance Jags fans have been waiting to see week in and week out, but that consistency has eluded Lawrence and this week he will be going up against the 15th ranked overall defense.

While Lawrence is having a good season down field, he's had 15 completions of 20 yards or more (leads the league) as well as 541 yards on deep passes (again, leads the league), his bogeyman has been talent at receiver as Lawrence has had to deal with a rash of dropped passes. Jacksonville leads the league in dropped passes at 10.5%. And with the Jags front 5 being solid for most of the season, minus the blow out to the Bears, when given time and talent, Lawrence is a well above-average passer. 

If running backs Tank Bigsby, who leads the team in rushing yards with 415 on 67 carries, and Trevor Etienne, who should be back from his hamstring injury, can give some ground game, which would help Lawrence find his receivers more easily, this could be a good outing for the Jags.

Remember, Jacksonville started the season 0 - 4, but lost by only 5 or fewer points in three of those games and have now won two of their last three games. This team is very close to having a winning record if a few things had gone their way.

The Jaguars are ranked 27th in the ESPN NFL Power Rankings

Packers Preview

Green Bay enters this week 5 - 2 on the season and sitting in 3rd place in the NFC North and have won their last three games under the steady hand of Jordan Love.

Love played well last week against a very tough Houston Texans team throwing for 220 yards on 24 of 33 passing with three touchdowns, two interceptions and two sacks. Love has 15 touchdowns and is averaging 270.2 yards per game passing on the season, with 13 of those touchdown passes being in the last four games. Couple that with the running game of Josh Jacobs who has 120 carries on the season for 540 yards, it is starting to quietly look like a team flying under the radar.

Defensively the Packers are ranked 15th in total defense giving up 318.4 yards per game and 17 touchdowns on the season. Linebacker Quay Walker has 52 tackles and safety Xavier McKinney has five interceptions to go along with his 22 tackles this year.

This is a solid all-around team that is playing with some confidence after last week's close win against the Texans. On paper, this should be a no-brainer.

The Packers are ranked 5th in the ESPN NFL Power Rankings

How I Use Rithmm Models for my Packers vs Jaguars AI Prediction

So here's the thing, as of this writing, the moneyline is sitting at the Packers being road favorites at -192 (DK) and as high as a -4.5 favorite on the spread depending on the book. The thing is, no matter how good the Packers look and how bad the Jags appear to be, this game has a funny vibe like it could be a trap game for the Packers.

If Green Bay doesn't come out clicking on all cylinders, this Jaguars team is ripe for picking off a win this week. They are coming home from an extended road trip overseas and have won two of their last three games. They are playing with momentum and teams that are perceived to be a roll-over, tend to be the one that jumps up and bites you hard.

That moneyline makes little sense in that it's not a play I'd take normally with that much juice. And the spread, while very tempting to grab that +4 for Jacksonville, still doesn't satisfy me when I look at my models. But that total? That looks to be the play this week.

My Rithmm models are pretty clear showing a 59.6% win probability and a 13.3% DTM. This model predicts the score to be closer to 46 and the line is still sitting at 49 at DK. My only reticence here is that the money is still heavy to the under with an 85% bet split. With that kind of money you'd expect this line to start falling, but it hasn't. So keep an eye on that as the game gets closer.

Personally, I'm liking the Jags to cover the +4 and possibly win this. It's a long shot but might be worth a little sprinkle for the plus money on the outright win and a cover. But I'll be taking the under 49 for sure on this game.

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