The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on May 16 at 6:45 PM ET. Let’s take a look at my Pirates vs Phillies prediction for today, including Pirates vs Phillies picks and Pirates vs Phillies best bets.
Heading into tonight’s Pirates vs Phillies prediction, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Pirates have momentum on their side with a recent stretch of solid performances against the spread, while the Phillies will be looking to bounce back after a shaky home ATS record. The game is set to take place at Citizens Bank Park and will be available to watch via local broadcasters or streaming platforms.
Injuries are a major factor in today’s Pirates vs Phillies picks.
Pirates Injury Report:
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Phillies Injury Report:
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According to my Rithmm model, the Phillies are slightly favored with a projected score of 5.0 to 4.0 over the Pirates. However, when it comes to covering the run line, the Pirates vs Phillies prediction gets interesting—especially considering the Pirates' ATS momentum.
The Pirates vs Phillies trends paint a clear picture of recent form:
These Pirates vs Phillies trends support a strong case for Pittsburgh to cover once again.
While this article focuses on recent trends and today’s prediction, historically these two franchises have played dozens of times. However, today’s Pirates vs Phillies pick is more influenced by current form and injuries than lifetime records.
I used my Pre-Built MLB Model in Rithmm, which considers a range of performance data, injury reports, line value, and historical team performance. This model has a solid track record in predicting underdog covers.
Based on the model’s data, the Pirates have a 55.5% probability to cover the +1.5 run line, despite being underdogs. This makes the Pirates vs Phillies best bet even more appealing if you’re playing the run line.
The Pirates vs Phillies best odds for +1.5 on the run line are:
Make sure to line shop for the best value on your Pirates vs Phillies picks.
My Pirates vs Phillies prediction is to take Pirates +1.5 (-111). The model recommends this run line pick based on recent Pirates vs Phillies trends and a strong edge shown in Pittsburgh’s recent ATS form.
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