Raiders vs Ravens: AI Prediction - NFL Picks for Todays Game
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Week 2 of the NFL is here and there are those teams who fell short week 1 who are looking towards this game to get their first win of the season. The Las Vegas Raiders go head-to-head with the Baltimore Raiders at 1:00PM EST in Baltimore.
Preview of my Raiders vs. Ravens Prediction
The match up has two teams that came into the season with high, albeit different expectations. However, both teams lost their first week game and come into this one searching for their first win and to jumpstart their season. The Raiders, led by interim turned official, head coach, Antonio Pierce, are simply looking for positive momentum in a very competitiveconference. The Ravens, on the other hand, have Super Bowl aspersions and an 0-2 start is a big hindrance to that. Let’s take a look at the Raiders vs Ravens AI Predictions for what the models say are the best bets of this AFC battle.
Las Vegas Raiders Preview
The Las Vegas Raiders’ 2023 season did not go the way they wanted it to, in fact, the last 8 years haven’t gone very well having just one winning season with one playoff appearance since 2016. In 2023, the Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels midway through the year and Pierce took over as Interim head coach. He ended the year 5-4 and earned the role to take the interim tag off and be the full head coach.
Last year, the Raiders offense ended the season ranked 27th in the league in DVOA. But this season they have a clear strategy of ground and pound and lean on a hard nose defense. They are relying on newly drafted tight end Brock Bowers, veteran, stable quarterback Gardner Minshew, and skill position guys like Devante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Zamir White.
In week 1, there wasn’t much that went right for them offensively. They ended the game with just 10 points, 71 team rushing yards, 296 total yards, and three terrible turnovers and a missed field goal.
The defense is where they want to leave their mark with a team defense that ended last year ranked 8th in DVOA last season.
They held their week 1 opponent in check but a late fourth quarter surge put the game out of reach. The defense was “bending but not breaking” with allowing only field goals until that fourth quarter.
They don’t necessarily have Super Bowl aspirations but any positive momentum for the Raiders is a big win this season.
Baltimore Raiders Preview
Simply put, the Baltimore Ravens are Super Bowl or bust. They ended last season in a disappointing way losing in the Conference Championship game after earning the number one seed with a 13-4 record.
Quarterback, Lamar Jackson earned the 2023 NFL MVP by leading the Ravens offense to a 4th ranking in DVOA. Despite not having any superstar skill players, Jackson, led his team with rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers to that one-seed.
As good as the offense was last year, the defense was even better. They finished 2023 with the top ranked defense in DVOA.
Unfortunately, the Ravens kicked off the season last week on Thursday night against the reigning champion, Kansas City Chiefs and lost, maybe already, the game of the year. They missed a last second touchdown by a toe of tight end Likely that would have given them a chance to win. Despite that, there was a lot to like in the game. The team totaled 185 rushing yards, 452 total yards, and scored 20 points.
This is a team that will rely heavily on their All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson, their up-and-coming wide receiver Flowers, and their stout defense.
How I Use Rithmm Models for Raiders vs Ravens AI Prediction
The spread and over/under on this game is Ravens -8.5 and 41.5. It’s a tough line to analyze when initially looking, simply because of the high spread number and relatively low over/under.
First thoughts have me thinking that this game will be tight because of the way these two teams want to play. They want to play tough defense and supplement that with a back-breaking running game. So, the initial inclination is to focus on the over/under number and the Raiders getting the points.
The other side is that in their last five games, the Ravens are 0-5 against the spread and the Raiders are 2-3.
With my initial thoughts and research done, let’s turn to the Rithmm app and see if the models that have been created confirm my theories for my NFL AI Predictions.
Let's take a look at the Rithmm AI custom betting models that I personally created with the Rithmm app.
The first model that I created myself, “Offense/Passing”, is a model that leans on an offensive minded team, weighing the offense, passing, and Rithmm’s rank system that uses the app’s own Bayesian and Elo to best explain past wins and losses. This model has the Ravens -11.7 which is more than a 3-point edge on the given spread. Of course, knowing how the Ravens operate, this makes sense because of their great offense from last year and already in game 1 this year. This was actually a recommended bet according to the Rithmm app.
The next model I customized for the NFL season is the “Defense/Running” model that puts heavy emphasis on all defensive categories, running the ball, and Rithmm’s rank system. This model has the Raiders +3.5, giving a huge edge of 5 points on the given spread. This was also a recommended bet according to the Rithmm app.
Lastly, the “Well Rounded” model that I customized evenly weighs all of the available categories. With offense, defense, passing, running, and the Rithmm ranks all relatively aligned, the model has almost the given spread exactly. This model has Ravens +8.3, so just a slight edge towards the Raiders.
My Raiders vs Ravens AI Prediction
With my own research and with the models showcasing edges on both sides but with a significant edge of 5 points with one of the models, I am leaning towards taking the points on the spread. I think the Raiders were hindered an incredible amount with the three turnovers and did a great job of holding the offense at bay until the very end of the game in week 1 and I think they put it together this game. All of that being said, I’m taking the RAIDERS +8.5 in the Raiders vs Ravens match up.
More AI Predictions for NFL
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