Ravens vs Chiefs: NFL AI Predictions - TNF

Football is back people, officially.

The 2024 NFL season starts with a bang as the Baltimore Ravens head to GEHA Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs for Thursday Night Football (kind of). A repeat of the 2023 AFC Championship game, this is a terrific matchup between the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson and the Super Bowl MVP in Patrick Mahomes.

We'll be breaking down the game preview, our Rithmm model for this matchup, and my prediction for this game, so let's get into our Ravens vs Chiefs TNF Predictions for Week 1.

Ravens vs Chiefs TNF Preview

To start off the NFL season on Thursday Night Football, we go to the home of the Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, as they face off against the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs were busy this offseason, overhauling multiple parts of their team, but most notably the offense.

Nothing is changing with Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce, but the team added multiple pass-catchers to aid Mahomes in his quest for more championships. New additions to the team are rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy and speedy veteran Hollywood Brown, as well as the returns of former Chiefs Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman.

On the Ravens' side of things, the big offensive add is RB Derrick Henry, who left Tennessee after spending his whole career there. Adding Henry to an offense that already liked to run the ball a ton could be massive, especially for Lamar Jackson as it adds another layer to the offense. Things are mostly the same otherwise.

I'm picturing a contest in this game where both teams are looking to punch the other in the mouth, given the last time these two played, the winner went to the Super Bowl and the loser went home. I don't think we see a ton of passing in the game, given that both secondaries were plenty sharp last season and the running games are strong for both sides.

That feeds right into my Rithmm custom sports betting model that I built for this game.

Ravens vs Chiefs Thursday Night Football Rithmm Model

Building NFL models using Rithmm's technology is super easy! All you need to do is go into the Rithmm website or app, click on the models tab under NFL, and either click 'Build a Model For Me' or 'Personalize a Model'. The first option will auto-generate a model for you using our AI simulations and backtesting to determine what works.

After clicking 'Personalize a Model', you can build your model, either by utilizing the pre-made factors, or if you have Rithmm Premium, you can build your own custom factors using any variety of our numerous research analytics. Once that model has finishing its "training" and you name it, you're ready to track some NFL bets!

For a complete look, check out how to build a Rithmm NFL prediction model.

The model I built for this game heavily focuses on a gameplan that I think both teams will try to implement: heavy doses of play-action offense where there are a few deep shots taken, but the bulk of the damage gets done on the ground by two of the best running backs (and the best running quarterback) in football.

Both teams also have very solid defensive units, which is why I think we may see a closer game in this one.

Ravens vs Chiefs TNF Game Prediction

It’s time to see my game prediction for Week 1 TNF. We’re going to go into my prediction that is based on my custom Rithmm model, and why I think it's a good choice.

If you want to see the full predictions for this game, including our recommended player props, make sure you sign up for your FREE seven-day trial of Rithmm by clicking at the bottom of the page!

TNF Game Prediction for Ravens @ Chiefs

Pick: Ravens +3

Win Probability: 56.8%

DTM: 5.3%

Lamar Jackson has been an underdog 14 times in his career. Per ESPN's Ben Solak, in those games, he is:

• 12-1-1 against the spread
• 10-4 straight up

That's pretty good, I think. The Ravens have to have revenge on the brain for this game after really laying an egg in the AFC Championship loss to Kansas City. In that game, things quickly spiraled out of control after the Chiefs took an early 17-7 lead, and the Ravens' offense just never looked comfortable while making boneheaded move after boneheaded move.

I expect things to be a bit more smooth in this matchup. The Ravens' secondary is fully healthy for what feels like the first time in forever, and despite the new faces in Kansas City's receiver room, I expect Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton and co. to be on their game.

Look for Derrick Henry to really put his stamp on this one on this one early. His presence should really help Lamar open up the play-action game, which is an area the Chiefs ranked 31st in success rate against a year ago.

Closing Remarks on Ravens vs Chiefs TNF Predictions

With this TNF game kicking off the 2024-25 NFL season, I think we're in store for a fantastic year, and if you follow all of Rithmm's insights and tools, you will be too.

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