If you had Cecconi circled on your card today, there's data behind that instinct. Rithmm's models have been tracking a clear pattern in his starts this season, and tonight's matchup against the Cubs is putting it back on the board.
The pick: Slade Cecconi Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140). This is flagged as a Smart Signal inside the Rithmm app, which means it sits in the strongest historical signal tier in the model's output.
Across all Rithmm model predictions this season, when we recommend pitcher hits allowed with the line under 5.5:
The pattern record on this line:
Seven wins. One loss. That's not noise. That's a signal worth paying attention to.
The line is set at 5.5 hits allowed. Rithmm's prop model projects 4.7 hits allowed for this start. That's a meaningful gap, and it's the kind of gap the model is trained to surface.
Here's the full breakdown as it appears in the app:
A +5.4% DTM means the model's number sits meaningfully inside the edge window. In Rithmm's framework, that's where the cleaner bets tend to live. When the model projection and the historical pattern point in the same direction, that's worth noting.
Cecconi improved significantly last season, posting a 4.30 ERA over 23 starts with a 1.19 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk profile tightened, and his contact management showed real development from an inconsistent 2024 campaign. The underlying numbers suggest a pitcher who has found more control over his contact outcomes.
Tonight he faces a Cubs lineup that the model isn't projecting as a heavy hit production spot for this matchup. The combination of Cecconi's recent trajectory and the Cubs' lineup profile is what's driving the model's 4.7 projection.
This is a case where the data confirms a direction. The market has this at 5.5. The model has it at 4.7. That gap is the edge.
Inside Rithmm, Smart Signals represent the model's highest-confidence historical patterns. These are not generic picks or gut calls. They are situations where the model has seen this setup before, tracked the results, and the record speaks for itself.
The 7-1 record on this specific pattern is exactly that kind of output. The model ran this pattern across all its predictions on this line and found a consistent result. It's showing you what it sees. What you do with that is up to you.
Slade Cecconi Under 5.5 Hits Allowed is a Smart Signal for today's Cubs game. The model projects 4.7 hits allowed against a market set at 5.5. The pattern behind this setup is 7-1 with an 87.5% win rate and +57.2% ROI. The DTM sits at +5.4%, placing it squarely inside the model's edge window.
You had the instinct. The data is backing it up.
Want to see every Smart Signal for tonight's MLB slate? Open Rithmm and check today's full board.
